Reproduction of Figures for: UK Spring Hay Yields from 1902 to 2080 Suggest Continuing Decline in Grassland Productivity Under Changing Climate

Introduction

This is a summary file to generate the figures for UK Spring Hay Yields from 1902 to 2080 Suggest Continuing Decline in Grassland Productivity Under Changing Climate by Addy et al.. Data are saved from the directory and include the simulation of Park Grass hay yield from 1902 to 2016 and then the simulation of under HadGEM2 and GISS future climate models to 2080.

Figures

Below is the code to reproduce Figure 2 and Supplementary Figure 4. Please note that the data from Park Grass has been removed but can be optained from the Rothamsted Electronic Archive.

HadGEM2

library(ggplot2)


ggplot(data.combine.HadGEM2.12, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("No Input (12)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.HadGEM2.2, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("No Input (2.2)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.HadGEM2.3, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("No Input (3)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.HadGEM2.14, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("96 kg N"~ha^-1~"+ Minerals (14.2)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.HadGEM2.16, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("48 kg N"~ha^-1~"+ Minerals (16)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.HadGEM2.7, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim), alpha = 0.1)  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("Minerals (7)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

GISS

ggplot(data.combine.GISS.12, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("No Input (12)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.GISS.2, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.3, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("No Input (2.2)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.GISS.3, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("No Input (3)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.GISS.14, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("96 kg N"~ha^-1~"+ Minerals (14.2)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.GISS.16, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("96 kg N"~ha^-1~"+ Minerals (16)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill

ggplot(data.combine.GISS.7, aes(x = Year, y = CI50, colour = Sim))  + ylim(0, 9) + xlim(1900, 2080) + theme_bw() +
  theme(panel.grid.major = element_blank(), panel.grid = element_blank(), text = element_text(size = 18), legend.position = "none") +
  geom_line(aes(Year, CI50, fill = Sim), size = 0.8) +
  geom_ribbon(aes(ymin = CI055, ymax = CI94.5, fill = Sim), alpha = 0.2, color = NA) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("blue", "orange", "red"), aesthetics = c("color", "fill")) + 
  ggtitle("Minerals (7)") + xlab("Year") + ylab(bquote("Hay Yield t"~ha^-1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

## Warning: Ignoring unknown aesthetics: fill