Impacts of climate change on crop production and soil carbon stock in a continuous wheat cropping system in southeast England

Understanding dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock in agroecosystems under climate change is imperative for maintaining soil productivity and offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. Simulations with the SPACSYS model were conducted to assess the effects of future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and fertilisation practices on crop yield and SOC stock by 2100 for a continuous winter wheat cropping system in southeast England. Weather data between 1921 and 2000 was considered as the baseline. SPACSYS was first calibrated and validated with the data of the Broadbalk continuous winter wheat experiment for over a century. Six treatments were used: no fertiliser, a combination of chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium with three nitrogen application rates (N1PK, N3PK and N5PK), manure only (FYM, close N application rate to N5PK) and a combination of manure and chemical nitrogen application (FYMN, the same chemical N application rate as N3PK). Compared with the observations, SPACSYS was able to simulate grain yields and dynamics of SOC and TN stocks. Our predications showed that wheat yield would increase by 5.8–13.5% for all the fertiliser application treatments under future climate scenarios compared to that under the baseline because of a gradual increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Meanwhile, the SOC stock can increase for the practices under the scenarios except the NPK fertiliser practices under RCP2.6. Increased C input through “CO2-fertilisation effects” can compensate C losses by soil respiration under the RCP scenarios. We concluded that manure application practices can be considered as a sustainable strategy for enhancing wheat yield and soil C sequestration under the future climate scenarios.