Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Collins, A. L., Ockenden, M. C., Tych, W., Beven, K. J., Evans, R., Fallon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Holloway, M. J., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. A. J., Zhou, J. G., Benskin, C. McW. H., Buke, S., Cooper, R. J., Freer, J. E. and Haygarth, P. M. 2017. Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data. Hydrology And Earth System Sciences. 21, pp. 6425-6444.

AuthorsCollins, A. L., Ockenden, M. C., Tych, W., Beven, K. J., Evans, R., Fallon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Holloway, M. J., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. A. J., Zhou, J. G., Benskin, C. McW. H., Buke, S., Cooper, R. J., Freer, J. E. and Haygarth, P. M.
Abstract

Excess nutrients in surface waters, such as phosphorus
(P) from agriculture, result in poor water quality,
with adverse effects on ecological health and costs for remediation.
However, understanding and prediction of P transfers
in catchments have been limited by inadequate data and
over-parameterised models with high uncertainty. We show
that, with high temporal resolution data, we are able to identify simple dynamic models that capture the P load dynamics in three contrasting agricultural catchments in the UK.
For a flashy catchment, a linear, second-order (two pathways)
model for discharge gave high simulation efficiencies
for short-term storm sequences and was useful in highlighting
uncertainties in out-of-bank flows. A model with nonlinear
rainfall input was appropriate for predicting seasonal
or annual cumulative P loads where antecedent conditions
affected the catchment response. For second-order models,
the time constant for the fast pathway varied between 2 and
15 h for all three catchments and for both discharge and P,
confirming that high temporal resolution data are necessary
to capture the dynamic responses in small catchments (10–
50 km2/. The models led to a better understanding of the
dominant nutrient transfer modes, which will be helpful in
determining phosphorus transfers following changes in precipitation patterns in the future.

Year of Publication2017
JournalHydrology And Earth System Sciences
Journal citation21, pp. 6425-6444
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.5194/hess-21-6425-2017
Open accessPublished as green open access
FunderDepartment of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Natural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codePhase 2 of the Demonstration test catchment Project
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Print18 Dec 2017
Publication process dates
Accepted09 Nov 2017
PublisherCopernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
Copyright licenseCC BY
ISSN1027-5606

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/84604/prediction-of-storm-transfers-and-annual-loads-with-data-based-mechanistic-models-using-high-frequency-data

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