A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Bourhis, Y., Gottwald, T.R., Lopez-Ruiz, F.J., Patarapuwadol, S. and Van Den Bosch, F. 2019. Sampling for disease absence-deriving informed monitoring from epidemic traits. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 461, pp. 8-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.10.038
Authors | Bourhis, Y., Gottwald, T.R., Lopez-Ruiz, F.J., Patarapuwadol, S. and Van Den Bosch, F. |
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Abstract | Monitoring for disease requires subsets of the host population to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. If all the samples return healthy, what are the chances the disease was present but missed? In this paper, we developed a statistical approach to solve this problem considering the fundamental property of infectious diseases: their growing incidence in the host population. The model gives an estimate of the incidence probability density as a function of the sampling effort, and can be reversed to derive adequate monitoring patterns ensuring a given maximum incidence in the population. We then present an approximation of this model, providing a simple rule of thumb for practitioners. The approximation is shown to be accurate for a sample size larger than 20, and we demonstrate its use by applying it to three plant pathogens: citrus canker, bacterial blight and grey mould. |
Keywords | Disease absence; Risk assessment; Early detection; Sampling theory; Bayes’ Rule |
Year of Publication | 2019 |
Journal | Journal of Theoretical Biology |
Journal citation | 461, pp. 8-16 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.10.038 |
Open access | Published as non-open access |
Funder | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council |
Funder project or code | BBSRC Strategic Programme in Smart Crop Protection |
Real Time deployment of pathogen resistance genes in rice | |
Accepted author manuscript | |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
19 Jan 2019 | |
Online | 18 Oct 2018 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 17 Oct 2018 |
Publisher | Academic Press Ltd- Elsevier Science Ltd |
Copyright license | Publisher copyright |
ISSN | 0022-5193 |
Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/84vq8/sampling-for-disease-absence-deriving-informed-monitoring-from-epidemic-traits
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