Projected impacts of increased uptake of source control mitigation measures on agricultural diffuse pollution emissions to water and air

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Zhang, Y., Collins, A. L., Johnes, P. J. and Jones, J. I. 2017. Projected impacts of increased uptake of source control mitigation measures on agricultural diffuse pollution emissions to water and air. Land Use Policy. 62 (March), pp. 185-201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.12.017

AuthorsZhang, Y., Collins, A. L., Johnes, P. J. and Jones, J. I.
Abstract

A multi-pollutant modelling framework for England and Wales is described. This includes emissions of nitrate, phosphorus and sediment to water and ammonia, methane and nitrous oxide to air, and has been used to characterise baseline (no uptake of on-farm measures) and business-as-usual (BAU) annual pollutant losses, comparing these with the loss under a range of new policies aimed at increasing the uptake of relevant source control measures to 95% across England and Wales. Model outputs, including uncertainty ranges, evaluated using national water and air quality data layers have been summarised at both farm (Robust Farm Type) and water management catchment (WMC) scale. Nationally, across all farm types, the median annual reductions in pollutant losses under the new scenario, relative to BAU in 2010, were predicted to range between 9 and 16% for nitrate, 13–37% for phosphorus, 12–21% for sediment, 2–57% for methane and 10–17% for nitrous oxide. For ammonia, the range was −2–28%, indicating the potential for pollution swapping and an increase in ammonia emissions under scenarios designed to reduce nitrogen flux to waters. Increased uptake of pollution source control measures would result in a wide range of annual total (capital and operational) costs (per farm) for the major farm types, with median estimates ranging from £635 yr−1 (Less Favourable Areas (LFA) with grazing livestock) to £15,492 yr−1 (Cereals) in Nitrate Vulnerable Zone (NVZ) areas, compared with a range of £23 yr−1 to £13,484 yr−1 for the same respective farm types in non-NVZ areas. The estimated median annual load reductions for all WMCs relative to BAU, were predicted to be 16% for nitrate, 20% for phosphorus, 16% for sediment, 16% for ammonia, 15% for methane and 18% for nitrous oxide. These predictions suggest that almost perfect (95% uptake) implementation of source control measures will not deliver substantial improvements in pollutant emissions.

Keywordsdiffuse pollution; agriculture; source control; mitigation; policy; scenario analysis; uncertainty
Year of Publication2017
JournalLand Use Policy
Journal citation62 (March), pp. 185-201
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.12.017
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderDepartment of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Funder project or codeSustainability
Provision of Demonstration test Catchments: LM0304
Publisher's version
Copyright license
CC BY
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online07 Jan 2017
Publication process dates
Accepted06 Dec 2016
PublisherElsevier
ISSN0264-8377

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