A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Hassall, K. L., Dailey, A. G., Zawadzka, J., Milne, A. E., Harris, J. A., Corstanje, R. and Whitmore, A. P. 2019. Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software. 122, p. 104539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539
Authors | Hassall, K. L., Dailey, A. G., Zawadzka, J., Milne, A. E., Harris, J. A., Corstanje, R. and Whitmore, A. P. |
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Abstract | Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to define the conditional dependencies within the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at [web location]. |
Keywords | Bayes nets; Belief networks; Expert elicitation; Conditional probability tables |
Year of Publication | 2019 |
Journal | Environmental Modelling and Software |
Journal citation | 122, p. 104539 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539 |
Open access | Published as ‘gold’ (paid) open access |
Funder | Natural Environment Research Council |
Funder project or code | A Bayesian Belief network to operationalize the concepts of Soil Quality and Health |
Publisher's version | |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
Online | 01 Oct 2019 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 27 Sep 2019 |
Copyright license | CC BY |
Publisher | |
Elsevier | |
ISSN | 1364-8152 |
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