Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Hassall, K. L., Dailey, A. G., Zawadzka, J., Milne, A. E., Harris, J. A., Corstanje, R. and Whitmore, A. P. 2019. Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software. 122, p. 104539.

AuthorsHassall, K. L., Dailey, A. G., Zawadzka, J., Milne, A. E., Harris, J. A., Corstanje, R. and Whitmore, A. P.
Abstract

Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to defi ne the conditional dependencies within the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at [web location].

KeywordsBayes nets; Belief networks; Expert elicitation; Conditional probability tables
Year of Publication2019
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Journal citation122, p. 104539
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderNatural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codeA Bayesian Belief network to operationalize the concepts of Soil Quality and Health
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online01 Oct 2019
Publication process dates
Accepted27 Sep 2019
Copyright licenseCC BY
Publisher
Elsevier
ISSN1364-8152

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