Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling

Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to defi�ne the conditional dependencies within the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at [web location].