A Generic Approach for Live prediction of the risk of agricultural field runoff and delivery to watercourses: linking parsimonious soil-water-connectivity models with live weather data APIs in decision tools

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Comber, A., Collins, A. L., Haro-Monteagudo, D., Hess, T., Zhang, Y., Smith, A. and Turner, A. 2019. A Generic Approach for Live prediction of the risk of agricultural field runoff and delivery to watercourses: linking parsimonious soil-water-connectivity models with live weather data APIs in decision tools. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 3, p. Article 42.

AuthorsComber, A., Collins, A. L., Haro-Monteagudo, D., Hess, T., Zhang, Y., Smith, A. and Turner, A.
Abstract

This paper describes the development and application of a novel and generic framework for parsimonious soil-water interaction models to predict the risk of agro-chemical
runoff. The underpinning models represent two scales to predict runoff risk in fields and the delivery of mobilized pesticides to river channel networks. Parsimonious field and
landscape scale runoff risk models were constructed using a number of pre-computed parameters in combination with live rainfall data. The precomputed parameters included spatially-distributed historical rainfall data to determine long term average soil water content and the sensitivity of land use and soil type combinations to runoff. These were combined with real-time live rainfall data, freely available through open data portals and APIs, to determine runoff risk using SCS Curve Numbers. The rainfall data was stored to provide antecedent, current and future rainfall inputs. For the landscape scale model, the delivery risk of mobilized pesticides to the river network included intrinsic landscape factors. The application of the framework is illustrated for two case studies at field and catchment scales, covering acid herbicide at field scale and metaldehyde at landscape scale.Web tools were developed and the outputs provide spatially and temporally explicit predictions of runoff and pesticide delivery risk at 1 km2 resolution. The model parsimony reflects the driving nature of rainfall and soil saturation for runoff risk and the critical influence of both surface and drain flow connectivity for the risk of mobilized pesticide being delivered to watercourses. The novelty of this research lies in the coupling of live Comber et al. Generic Parsimonious Runoff Risk Models spatially-distributed weather data with precomputed runoff and delivery risk parameters for crop and soil types and historical rainfall trends. The generic nature of the framework supports the ability to model the runoff and field-to-channel delivery risk associated with any in-field agricultural application assuming application rate data are available.

KeywordsBig data and analytics; Spatial data integration; Pesticides; Metaldehyde; Web-based model,; R; API
Year of Publication2019
JournalFrontiers in Sustainable Food Systems
Journal citation3, p. Article 42
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.3389/fsufs.2019.00042
Open accessPublished as green open access
FunderNatural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codeS2N - Soil to Nutrition - Work package 3 (WP3) - Sustainable intensification - optimisation at multiple scales
Publisher's version
Publication dates
Online04 Jun 2019
Publication process dates
Accepted15 May 2019
PublisherFrontiers Media SA
ISSN2571-581X

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