A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Bourhis, Y., Gotwald, T. R. and Van Den Bosch, F. 2019. Translating surveillance data into incidence estimates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. 374 (1776). https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0262
Authors | Bourhis, Y., Gotwald, T. R. and Van Den Bosch, F. |
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Abstract | Monitoring a population for a disease requires the hosts to be sampled and tested for the pathogen. This results in sampling series from which we may estimate the disease incidence, i.e. the proportion of hosts infected. Existing estimation methods assume that disease incidence does not change between monitoring rounds, resulting in an underestimation of the disease incidence. In this paper we develop an incidence estimation model accounting for epidemic growth with monitoring rounds that sample varying incidence. We also show how to accommodate the asymptomatic period that is characteristic of most diseases. For practical use, we produce an approximation of the model, which is subsequently shown to be accurate for relevant epidemic and sampling parameters. Both the approximation and the full model are applied to stochastic spatial simulations of epidemics. The results prove their consistency for a very wide range of situations. The estimation model is made available as an online application. |
Keywords | Disease Surveillance; Sampling Theory; Spatial Epidemiology |
Year of Publication | 2019 |
Journal | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences |
Journal citation | 374 (1776) |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0262 |
Web address (URL) | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2018.0262 |
Open access | Published as non-open access |
Funder | BBSRC Newton funding |
Funder project or code | BBSRC Strategic Programme in Smart Crop Protection |
Real Time deployment of pathogen resistance genes in rice | |
Accepted author manuscript | |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
20 May 2019 | |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 08 Feb 2019 |
Publisher | Royal Society Publishing |
ISSN | 0962-8436 |
Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/8wx0q/translating-surveillance-data-into-incidence-estimates
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