Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Macgregor, C.J, Thomas, C.D., Roy, D.B., Beaumont, M., Bell, J. R., Brereton, T., Bridle, J., Dytham, C., Fox, R., Gotthard, K., Hoffmann, A., Martin, G., Middlebrook, I., Nylin, S., Platts, P., Rasteiro, R., Saccheri, I., Villoutreix, R., Wheat, C. and Hill, J. 2019. Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year. Nature Ecology & Evolution. 10 (4455).

AuthorsMacgregor, C.J, Thomas, C.D., Roy, D.B., Beaumont, M., Bell, J. R., Brereton, T., Bridle, J., Dytham, C., Fox, R., Gotthard, K., Hoffmann, A., Martin, G., Middlebrook, I., Nylin, S., Platts, P., Rasteiro, R., Saccheri, I., Villoutreix, R., Wheat, C. and Hill, J.
Abstract

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to similar to 0.5 degrees C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate pole-wards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

KeywordsHABITAT AVAILABILITY; BRITISH BUTTERFLIES; TAXONOMIC GROUPS; NATURAL ENEMIES; RESPONSES; CONSEQUENCES; SENSITIVITY; MATURATION; ASYNCHRONY; ABUNDANCE
Year of Publication2019
JournalNature Ecology & Evolution
Journal citation10 (4455)
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w
Web address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12479-w.pdf
Open accessPublished as bronze (free) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeThe Rothamsted Insect Survey - National Capability [2017-2022]
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online24 Oct 2019
Publication process dates
Accepted09 Sep 2019
PublisherNature Publishing Group
ISSN2397-334X

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/96ywz/climate-induced-phenology-shifts-linked-to-range-expansions-in-species-with-multiple-reproductive-cycles-per-year

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