Global warming and shifts in cropping systems together reduce China's rice production

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Chen, C. Q., Jan Van Groenigen, K., Yang, H., Hungate, B. A., Yang, B., Tian, Y., Chen, J., Dong, W., Huang, S, Deng, A., Jiang, Y. and Zhang, W. 2020. Global warming and shifts in cropping systems together reduce China's rice production. Global Food Security. 24, p. 100359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100359

AuthorsChen, C. Q., Jan Van Groenigen, K., Yang, H., Hungate, B. A., Yang, B., Tian, Y., Chen, J., Dong, W., Huang, S, Deng, A., Jiang, Y. and Zhang, W.
Abstract

Climate warming is widely expected to affect rice yields, but results are equivocal and variation in rice cropping systems and climatic conditions complicates country-scale yield assessments. Here we show, through meta–analysis of field warming experiments, that yield responses to warming differ strongly between China's rice cropping systems. Whereas warming increases yields in “single rice” systems, it decreases yields in “middle rice” systems and has contrasting effects for early and late rice in “double rice” systems. We further show that the contribution of these cropping systems to China's total rice production has shifted dramatically over recent decades. We estimate that if the present structure of rice cropping systems persists, warming will reduce China's total rice production by 5.0% in 2060. However, if the recent decline in the area of double rice systems continues, China's rice production may decrease by 13.5%. Our results underline the need for maintaining the current area of China's “double rice” cropping system and for technological Innovations in multiple rice cropping systems to ensure food security in a warming climate.

KeywordsFood security; Warming ; Climate change; Meta-analysis; Cropping system
Year of Publication2020
JournalGlobal Food Security
Journal citation24, p. 100359
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100359
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online21 May 2020
Publication process dates
Accepted30 Jan 2020
PublisherElsevier Science Bv
ISSN2211-9124

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/97v75/global-warming-and-shifts-in-cropping-systems-together-reduce-china-s-rice-production

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