Stakeholder interpretation of probabilistic representations of uncertainty in spatial information an example on the nutritional quality of staple

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Chagumaira, C., Nalivata, P. C., Chimungu, J. G., Gashu, D., Broadley, M., Milne, A. E. and Lark, R. M. 2022. Stakeholder interpretation of probabilistic representations of uncertainty in spatial information an example on the nutritional quality of staple. International Journal Of Geographical Information Science. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.2020278

AuthorsChagumaira, C., Nalivata, P. C., Chimungu, J. G., Gashu, D., Broadley, M., Milne, A. E. and Lark, R. M.
Abstract

Spatial information, inferred from samples, is needed for decision making, but is uncertain. One way to convey uncertain information is with probabilities (e.g. that a value falls below a critical threshold). We examined how different professional groups (agricultural scientists or health and nutrition experts) interpret information, presented this way, when making a decision about interventions to address human selenium (Se) deficiency. The information provided was a map, either of the probability that Se concentration in local staple grain falls below a nutritionally-significant threshold (negative framing) or of the probability that grain Se concentration is above the threshold (positive framing). There was evidence for an effect of professional group and of framing on the decision process. Negative framing led to more conservative decisions; intervention was recommended at a smaller probability that the grain Se is inadequate than if the question were framed positively, and the decisions were more comparable between professional groups under negative framing. Our results show the importance of framing in probabilistic presentations of uncertainty, and of the background of the interpreter. Our experimental approach could be used to elicit threshold probabilities which represent the preferences of stakeholder communities to support them in the interpretation of
uncertain information

KeywordsDecision-making ; Framing effect; Interpret probability; Values mean probability value; Uncertainty
Year of Publication2022
JournalInternational Journal Of Geographical Information Science
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2021.2020278
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online01 Mar 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted15 Dec 2021
PublisherTaylor & Francis
ISSN1365-8816

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/98843/stakeholder-interpretation-of-probabilistic-representations-of-uncertainty-in-spatial-information-an-example-on-the-nutritional-quality-of-staple

49 total views
2 total downloads
0 views this month
0 downloads this month
Download files as zip