Spatial characteristics of the fungus powdery mildew (Erysiphe neolycopersici) on tomatoes and its spread in industrial greenhouses

In regions with cool temperate climates tomatoes are grown
on an industrial scale in large greenhouses. There the crops are susceptible to infection by powdery mildew,the fungus Erysiphe neolycopersici, which is introduced largely as fungal spores from outside the greenhouses and spread by wind within them. We have monitored the spread of the disease and mapped its distribution in four commercial greenhouses throughout the growing season to understand its aetiology. We modelled the patterns of infection geostatistically each comprising a deterministic long-range trend plus a short-range spatially correlated random residual. We identified three main kinds of pattern; one consisted of a constant plus a spatially correlated residual, a second comprised a linear trend throughout the greenhouse plus a correlated random residual, and in a third the trend had the form of a bell akin to a Gaussian surface plus, again, a correlated random residual. Here we show three examples of these distributions and the detail of their geostatistical analysis using both traditional method-of-moments estimation of variograms and residual maximum likelihood reml to separate the deterministic and random components.The analytical modelling is followed by ordinary punctual kriging in the first case, by universal kriging in the second, and by regression kriging in the the third case to display the infection as isarithmic
contour maps. We interpret the first form of distribution as arising from numerous foci as spores landed on the leaves from various sources spread by air currents and the movement of workers along the paths through the greenhouse. In the second case the disease seemed to have spread from infection introduced through the main door in one corner of the greenhouse and spread from there by the workers and air currents. In the third infection arose near the centre of the greenhouse by the main path and spread outwards from there. In all three examples the main pathways seemed important routes along which the fungus spread.