The spatio-temporal dynamics of suspended sediment sources based on a novel indexing approach combining Bayesian geochemical fingerprinting with physically-based modelling

Applications of sediment source fingerprinting continue to increase globally as the need for information to support improved management of the sediment problem persists. In our novel research, a Bayesian fingerprinting approach using MixSIAR was used with geochemical signatures, both without and with informative priors based on particle size and slope. The source estimates were compared with a newly proposed Source Sensitivity Index (SSI) and outputs from the INVEST-SDR model. MixSIAR results with informative priors indicated that agricultural and barren lands are the principal sediment sources (contributing ∼5–85% and ∼5–80% respectively during two sampling periods i.e. 2018-2019 and 2021–2022) with forests being less important. The SSI spatial maps (using % clay and slope as informative priors) showed >78% agreement with the spatial map derived using the INVEST-SDR model in terms of sub-catchment prioritization for spatial sediment source contributions. This study demonstrates the benefits of combining geochemical sediment source fingerprinting with SSI indices in larger catchments where the spatial prioritization of soil and water conservation is both challenging but warranted.