Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Trnka, M., Meitner, J., Balek, J., Feng, S., Arbelaez-Gaviria, J., Fischer, M., Boere. E., Havlík, P., Kersebaum, K., Nendel, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semeradova, D., Semenov, M. A., Podebradska, M., Esper, J., Buentgen, U., Brzezina, J., Zalud, Z., Katul, G. and Jorgen, O. 2023. Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3293805/v1

AuthorsTrnka, M., Meitner, J., Balek, J., Feng, S., Arbelaez-Gaviria, J., Fischer, M., Boere. E., Havlík, P., Kersebaum, K., Nendel, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semeradova, D., Semenov, M. A., Podebradska, M., Esper, J., Buentgen, U., Brzezina, J., Zalud, Z., Katul, G. and Jorgen, O.
Abstract

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered.

Year of Publication2023
JournalResearch Square
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3293805/v1
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeDelivering Sustainable Wheat
Accepted author manuscript
Output statusSubmitted
Publication process dates
Accepted19 Sep 2023

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/98y4v/climate-induced-severe-water-scarcity-events-as-harbinger-of-global-grain-price

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