Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Trnka, M., Meitner, J., Balek, J., Feng, S., Arbelaez-Gaviria, J., Fischer, M., Boere. E., Havlík, P., Kersebaum, K., Nendel, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semeradova, D., Semenov, M. A., Podebradska, M., Esper, J., Buentgen, U., Brzezina, J., Zalud, Z., Katul, G. and Jorgen, O. 2023. Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3293805/v1

Publication process dates
Authors	Trnka, M., Meitner, J., Balek, J., Feng, S., Arbelaez-Gaviria, J., Fischer, M., Boere. E., Havlík, P., Kersebaum, K., Nendel, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semeradova, D., Semenov, M. A., Podebradska, M., Esper, J., Buentgen, U., Brzezina, J., Zalud, Z., Katul, G. and Jorgen, O.
Abstract	The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered.
Year of Publication	2023
Journal	Research Square
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)	https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3293805/v1
Funder	Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or code	Delivering Sustainable Wheat
Accepted author manuscript	Trnko et al 2023 43ef18bb-fbd3-4f0b-85df-045c4c84edf9.pdf
Output status	Submitted
Accepted	19 Sep 2023

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Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rotter, R. P., O'Leary, G. J., Fitzgerald, G. J., Girousse, C., Motzo, R., Giunta, F., Babar, M. A., Reynolds, M. P., Kheir, A. M. S., Thorburn, P. J., Ruane, A. C., Waha, K, Aggarwal, P. K., Ahmed, M., Balkovic, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Bindi, M., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, D., Dumont, B., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Fereres, E., Ferrise, R., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Gao, Y., Horan, H., Hoggenboom, G., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C., Kassie, B. T., Kersebaum, K-C., Klein, C., Koehler, A-K., Liu, B., Minoli, S., San Martin, M. M., Muller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Porter, J., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M. A., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Van der Velde, M., Wallach, D., Wang, E., Webber, H., Wolf, J., Xiao, L., Zhang, Z., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. and Ewert, F. 2019. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology. 25 (1), pp. 155-173. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14481

The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment for modeling wheat response to temperature: field experiments and AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Martre, P., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Cammarano, D., Maiorano, A., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Dumont, B., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jablou, M., Jones, C. D., Kassie, B. T., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A.- K., Muller, C., Kumar, S. N., Liu, B., Lobell, D. B., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E,, Rezaei, E. E., Ripoche, D., Rotter, R. P, Semenov, M. A., Stockle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2018. The Hot Serial Cereal Experiment for modeling wheat response to temperature: field experiments and AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations. Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research (ODjAR). 4, pp. 28-34. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/M9ZT0F

Multi-model ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Wallach, D., Martre, P., Liu, B., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Thorburn, P. J., Van Ittersum, M., Aggarwal, P. K., Ahmed, M., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Dumont, B., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Fereres, E., Fitzgerald, G. J., Gao, Y., Garcia-Vila, M., Galyer, S., Girousse, C., Hoogenboom, G., Horan, H., Izaurralde, R. C., Jones, C. D., Kassie, B. T., Kersebaum, K. C., Klein, C., Koehler, A.-K., Maiorano, A., Minoli, S., Muller,C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Rotter, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Stockle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Wolf, J. and Zhang, Z 2018. Multi-model ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions. Global Change Biology. 24 (11), pp. 5072-5083. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14411

Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Parent, B., Leclere, M., Lacube, S., Semenov, M. A., Welcker, C., Martre, P. and Tardieu, F. 2018. Maize yields over Europe may increase in spite of climate change, with an appropriate use of the genetic variability of flowering time. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 115 (42), pp. 10642-10647. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1720716115

Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Webber, H, Ewert, F., Olesen, J. E., Müller, C., Fronzek, S., Ruane, A. C., Bourgault, M., Martre, P., Ababaei, B., Bindi, M., Ferrise, R., Finger, R., Fodor, N., Gabaldón-Leal, C., Gaiser, T., Jabloun, M., Kersebaum, K.-C., Lizaso, J. I., Lorie, I. J., Manceau, L., Moriondo, M., Nendel, C., Rodriguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semenov, M. A., Siebert, S., Stella, T., Stratonovitch, P., Trombi, G. and Wallach, D. 2018. Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe. Nature Communications. 9 (4249). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2

Adaptation response surfaces for local management of wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 concentration in a Mediterranean environment.

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R, Rodriguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Bindi, M., Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S., Palosuo, T., Pirttioja, N., Baranowski, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Hoffman, H., Hohn, J. G., Jurecka F., Kersebaum, K. C., Krzyszczak, J., Lana, M., Mechiche-Alami, A., Minet, J., Montesino, M., Nendel, C., Porter, J. R., Ruget, F., Semenov, M. A., Steinmetz, Z., Stratonovitch, P., Supit, I., Tao, F., Trnka, M., De Wit, A. and Potter, R. P. 2018. Adaptation response surfaces for local management of wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 concentration in a Mediterranean environment. Agricultural Systems. 159 (January), pp. 260-274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009

Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Tao, F., Rotter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Diaz-Ambrona, C. G. H., Minguez, M. I., Semenov, M. A., Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., Specka, X.., Hoffmann, H., Ewert, F., Dambrevill, A., Martre, P., Rodriguez, L., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Gaiser, T., Hohn, J. G., Salo, T., Ferrise, R., Bindi, M., Cammarano, D. and Schulman, A.H. 2018. Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments. Global Change Biology. 24 (3), pp. 1291-1307. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14019

Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change.

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Fronzek, S., Pirttioja, N., Carter, T. R., Bindi, M., Hoffman, H., Palosuo, T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Tao, F., Trnka, M., Acutis, M., Asseng, S., Baranowski, P., Basso, B., Bodin, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Deligios, P., Destain, M-F., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Ferrise, R., Francois, L., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Jacquemin, I., Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Krzyszczak, J., Loriet, I. J., Minet, J., Minguez, M. I., Montesino, M., Moriondo, M., Muller, M., Nendel, C., Ozturk, I., Perego, A., Rodriguez, A., Ruane, A. C., Ruget, F., Sanna, M., Semenov, M. A., Slawinski, C., Stratonovitch, P., Supit, I., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wu, L., Zhao, Z. and Rotter, R. P. 2018. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change. Agricultural Systems. 159, pp. 209-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.08.004

Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Maiorano, A., Martre, P., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Muller, C., Rotter, R. P., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Wallach, D., Wang, E. L., Alderman, P. D., Kassie, B. T., Biernath, C., Basso, B., Cammaran, D., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Dumont, B., Rezaei, E. E., Gayler, S., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A. K., Liu, B., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Priesack, E., Reynolds, M., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Zhao, Z. G. and Zhu, Y. 2017. Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles. Field Crops Research. 202, pp. 5-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.05.001

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Wang, E., Martre, P., Zhao, Z., Ewert, F., Maiorano, A., Rötter, R. P., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Dumont, B., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A. K., Liu, L., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ripoche, D., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wallach, D., Wang, Z., Wolf, J., Zhu, Y. and Asseng, S. 2017. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nature Plants. 3, p. 17102. https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2017.102

Use of an individual-based simulation model to explore and evaluate potential insecticide resistance management strategies

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Slater, R., Stratonovitch, P., Elias, J., Semenov, M. A. and Denholm, I. 2017. Use of an individual-based simulation model to explore and evaluate potential insecticide resistance management strategies. Pest Management Science. 73 (7), pp. 1364-1372. https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.4456

Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: A multi-model comparison

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Webber, H., Martre, P., Asseng, S., Kimball, B. A., White, J., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Grant, R., Kassie, B., Maiorano, A., Olesen, J. E., Ripoche, D., Rezaei, E. E., Semenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P. and Ewert, F. 2017. Canopy temperature for simulation of heat stress in irrigated wheat in a semi-arid environment: A multi-model comparison. Field Crops Research. 202 (15 February), pp. 21-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.009

Temporally and genetically discrete periods of wheat sensitivity to high temperature

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Barber, H. M., Lukac, M., Simmonds, J., Semenov, M. A. and Gooding, M. J. 2017. Temporally and genetically discrete periods of wheat sensitivity to high temperature. Frontiers in Plant Science. 8 (51), p. 9p. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2017.00051

Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Tao, F. L., Rotter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Diaz-Ambrona, C. G. H., Minguez, M. I., Semenov, M. A., Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., Cammarano, D., Hoffmann, H., Ewert, F., Dambreville, A., Martre, P., Rodriguez, L., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Gaiser, T., Hohn, J. G., Salo, T., Ferrise, R., Bindi, M. and Schulman, A. H. 2017. Designing future barley ideotypes using a crop model ensemble. European Journal of Agronomy. 82, pp. 144-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.10.012

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Lake, I. R, Jones, N. R., Agnew, M., Goodess, C. M., Giorgi, F., Hamaoui-Laguel, L., Semenov, M. A., Solmon, F., Storkey, J., Vautard, R. and Epstein, M. M. 2017. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe. Environmental Health Perspectives. 125, pp. 385-391. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp173

Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Webber, H., White, J. W., Kimball, B. A., Ewert, F., Asseng, S., Rezaei, E. E., Pinter, P. J., Hatfield, J., Reynolds, M. P., Ababaei, B., Bindi, M, Doltra, J., Ferrise, R., Kage, Henning, Kassie, B.T., Kersebaum, K.-C., Luig, A., Olesen, J. E., Semenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P., Ratjen, A. M., LaMorte, R. L., Leavitt, S. W., Hunsaker, D. J., Wall, G. W. and Martre, P. 2017. Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions. Field Crops Research. 216, pp. 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.11.005

How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Hoffmann, M. P., Haakana, M., Asseng, S., Hohn, J. G., Palosuo, T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Fronzek, S., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Kassie, B. T., Paff, K., Razaei, E. E., Rodriguez, A., Semenov, M. A., Srivastava, A. K., Stratonovitch, P., Tao, F., Chen, Y. and Rotter, R. P. 2017. How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites. Agricultural Systems. 159, pp. 199-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.012

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A. K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A. M., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J. W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y. 2016. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change. 6 (12), pp. 1130-1138. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Cammarano, D., Rötter, R. P., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Wallach, D., Martre, P., Hatfield, J. L., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Kersebaum, K. C., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Müller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T. M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Travasso, M., Waha, K., White, J. W. and Wolf, J. 2016. Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2. Field Crops Research. 198, pp. 80-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.015

Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Clare, F. C., Halder, J. B., Daniel, O., Bielby, J., Semenov, M. A., Jombart, T., Loyau, A., Schmeller, D. S., Cunningham, A. A., Rowcliffe, M., Garner, T. W. J., Bosch, J. and Fisher, M. C. 2016. Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. 371 (1709). https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0454

Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Ruane, A. C., Hudson, N. L., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Cammarano, D., Martre, P., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R. F., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Kersebaum, K. C., Müller, C., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T. M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F. L., Travasso, M., Waha, K., Wallach, D., White, J. W. and Wolf, J. 2016. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability. Environmental Modelling and Software. 81, pp. 86-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008

Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security: introduction

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Bindi, M., Palosuo, T., Trnka, M. and Semenov, M. A. 2015. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security: introduction. Climate Research. 65, pp. 3-5. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01342

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Pirttioja, N., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. Climate Research. 65, pp. 87-105. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01322

In silico system analysis of physiological traits determining grain yield and protein concentration for wheat as influenced by climate and crop management

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Martre, P., He, J., Le Gouis, J. and Semenov, M. A. 2015. In silico system analysis of physiological traits determining grain yield and protein concentration for wheat as influenced by climate and crop management. Journal of Experimental Botany. 66, pp. 3581-3598. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erv049

Statistical analysis of large simulated yield datasets for studying climate effects

B - Book chapters etc edited externally

Makowski, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Bassu, S., Durand, J., Martre, P., Adam, M., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Baron, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Boogard, H., Boote, K. J., Brisson, N., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., Conijn, S., Corbeels, M., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grassini, P., Hatfield, J. L., Heng, L., Hoek, S., Hooker, J., Hunt, T., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Jongschaap, R., Jones, J., Kersebaum, K. C., Kim, S., Lizaso, J., Müller, C., Kumar, N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olsen, J., Osborne, T., Palosuo, T., Pravia, M., Priesack, E., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. Statistical analysis of large simulated yield datasets for studying climate effects. in: Hillel, D. and Rosenzweig, C. (ed.) Handbook of climate change and agroecosystems: the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Imperial College Press, London. pp. 279-295

Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Ewert, F., Rotter, R. P., Bindi, M., Webber, H., Trnka, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., Van Ittersum, M. K., Janssen, S., Rivington, M., Semenov, M. A., Wallach, D., Porter, J. R., Stewart, D., Verhagen, J., Gaiser, T., Palosuo, T., Tao, F., Nendel, C., Roggero, P. P., Bartosova, L. and Asseng, S. 2015. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change. Environmental Modelling and Software. 72, pp. 287-303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Rötter, R. P., Cammarano, D., Brisson, N., Basso, B., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. Benchmark data set for wheat growth models: field experiments and AgMIP multi-model simulations. Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research. 1, pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.18174/odjar.v1i1

Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Ferrise, R., Toscano, P., Pasqui, M., Moriondo, M., Primicerio, J., Semenov, M. A. and Bindi, M. 2015. Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin. Climate Research. 65, pp. 7-21. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01325

Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P. and Semenov, M. A. 2015. Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 12 (112), p. 20150721. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2015.0721

A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Makowski, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 214-215, pp. 483-493. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.09.013

Adapting wheat ideotypes for climate change: accounting for uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. Adapting wheat ideotypes for climate change: accounting for uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections. Climate Research. 65, pp. 123-139. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01297

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Stratonovitch, P. and Semenov, M. A. 2015. Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change. Journal of Experimental Botany. 66 (12), pp. 3599-3609. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erv070

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Hamaoui-Laguel, L., Vautard, R., Liu, L., Solmon, F., Viovy, N., Khvorosthyanov, D., Essl, F., Chuine, I., Colette, A., Semenov, M. A., Schaffhauser, A., Storkey, J., Thibaudon, M. and Epstein, M. M. 2015. Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe. Nature Climate Change. 5, pp. 766-771. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2652

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Asseng, S., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change. 5, pp. 143-147. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Martre, P., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2015. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Global Change Biology. 21 (2), pp. 911-925. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12768

An individual-based model of the evolution of pesticide resistance in heterogeneous environments: control of Meligethes aeneus population in oilseed rape crops

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Stratonovitch, P., Elias, J., Denholm, I., Slater, R. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. An individual-based model of the evolution of pesticide resistance in heterogeneous environments: control of Meligethes aeneus population in oilseed rape crops. PLOS ONE. 9, p. e115631. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0115631

Comparing climate change impacts on cereals based on CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES climate scenarios

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Vanuytracht, E., Raes, D., Willems, P. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. Comparing climate change impacts on cereals based on CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES climate scenarios. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 195-196, pp. 12-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.04.017

Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Trnka, M., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., Zalud, Z. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change. Nature Climate Change. 4, pp. 637-643. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2242

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P., Alghabari, F. and Gooding, M. J. 2014. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change. Journal of Cereal Science. 59 (3), pp. 245-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcs.2014.01.006

A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Storkey, J., Stratonovitch, P., Chapman, D. S., Vidotto, F. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe. PLOS ONE. 9, p. e88156. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088156

An objective approach to model reduction: application to the Sirius wheat model

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Crout, N. M. J., Craigon, J., Cox, G. M., Jao, Y., Tarsitano, D., Wood, A. T. A. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. An objective approach to model reduction: application to the Sirius wheat model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 189-190, pp. 211-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.010

Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2013. Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate. Food and Energy Security. 2 (3), pp. 185-196. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.34

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Asseng, S., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change. 3, pp. 827-832. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916

Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Pilkington-Bennett, S. and Calanca, P. 2013. Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set. Climate Research. 57, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01164

Reply to Gange et al: Climate-driven changes in the fungal fruiting season in the United Kingdom

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Kauserud, H., Heegaard, E., Buntgen, U., Halvorsen, R., Egli, S., Senn-Irlet, B., Krisai-Greilhuber, I., Damon, W., Norden, J., Hoiland, K., Kirk, P. M., Semenov, M. A., Stenseth, N. C. and Boddy, L. 2013. Reply to Gange et al: Climate-driven changes in the fungal fruiting season in the United Kingdom. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110, p. E335. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1221131110

Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Hoglind, M., Thorsen, S. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2013. Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 170 (15 March), pp. 103-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.02.010

Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Calanca, P. and Semenov, M. A. 2013. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database. Theoretical And Applied Climatology. 113, pp. 445-455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0799-3

A process-based approach to modelling impacts of climate change on the damage niche of an agricultural weed

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Stratonovitch, P., Storkey, J. and Semenov, M. A. 2012. A process-based approach to modelling impacts of climate change on the damage niche of an agricultural weed. Global Change Biology. 18 (6), pp. 2071-2080. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02650.x

Warming-induced shift in European mushroom fruiting phenology

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Kauserud, H., Heegaard, E., Buntgen, U., Halvorsen, R., Egli, S., Senn-Irlet, B., Krisai-Greilhuber, I., Damon, W., Sparks, T., Norden, J., Hoiland, K., Kirk, P., Semenov, M. A., Boddy, L. and Stenseth, N. C. 2012. Warming-induced shift in European mushroom fruiting phenology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109, pp. 14488-14493. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1200789109

Future change of daily precipitation indices in Japan: a stochastic weather generator-based bootstrap approach to provide probabilistic climate information

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Iizumi, T., Takayabu, I., Dairaku, K., Kusaka, H., Nishimori, M., Sakurai, G., Ishizaki, M. N., Adachi, S. A. and Semenov, M. A. 2012. Future change of daily precipitation indices in Japan: a stochastic weather generator-based bootstrap approach to provide probabilistic climate information. Journal of Geophysical Research. 117, p. D11114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017197

Simulation of environmental and genotypic variations of final leaf number and anthesis date for wheat

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

He, J., Le Gouis, J., Stratonovitch, P., Allard, V., Gaju, O., Heumez, E., Orford, S., Griffiths, S., Snape, J. W., Foulkes, M. J., Semenov, M. A. and Martre, P. 2012. Simulation of environmental and genotypic variations of final leaf number and anthesis date for wheat. European Journal of Agronomy. 42, pp. 22-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2011.11.002

Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Mitchell, R. A. C., Whitmore, A. P., Hawkesford, M. J., Parry, M. A. J. and Shewry, P. R. 2012. Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions. Nature Climate Change. 2, pp. 380-382. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1511

ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Iizumi, T., Semenov, M. A., Nishimori, M., Ishigooka, Y. and Kuwagata, T. 2012. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences. 370, pp. 1121-1139. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0305

Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Shewry, P. R. 2011. Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Scientific Reports. 1, p. 66. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00066

Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Luedeling, E., Girvetz, E. H., Semenov, M. A. and Brown, P. H. 2011. Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PLOS ONE. 6, p. e20155 (13pp). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020155

Erratum: The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Evans, N., Butterworth, M. H., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., West, J. S., Barnes, A., Moran, D. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2011. Erratum: The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security. 3 (1), pp. 117-120. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-010-0105-0

Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Madgwick, J. W., West, J. S., Wright, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Townsend, J. A., Turner, J. A. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2011. Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK. European Journal of Plant Pathology. 130 (1), pp. 117-131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-010-9739-1

Preface (to Agriculture in a changing climate: special issue of Climate Research)

G - Articles in popular magazines and other technical publications

Tarquis, A. M., Gobin, A. and Semenov, M. A. 2010. Preface (to Agriculture in a changing climate: special issue of Climate Research). Climate Research. 44, pp. 1-2. https://doi.org/10.3354//cr00942

ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Donatelli, M., Stratonovitch, P., Chatzidaki, E. and Baruth, B. 2010. ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe. Climate Research. 44 (1), pp. 3-15. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00865

Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Barnes, A. P., Wreford, A., Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Moran, D., Evans, N. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2010. Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change. The Journal of Agricultural Science. 148, pp. 683-694. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002185961000064X

Transient responses to increasing CO2 and climate change in an unfertilized grass-clover sward

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Lazzarotto, P., Calanca, P., Semenov, M. A. and Fuhrer, J. 2010. Transient responses to increasing CO2 and climate change in an unfertilized grass-clover sward. Climate Research. 41, pp. 221-232. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00847

The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Evans, N., Butterworth, M. H., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., West, J. S., Barnes, A., Moran, D. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2010. The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security. 2 (2), pp. 143-156. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-010-0058-3

Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Kauserud, H., Heegaard, E., Semenov, M. A., Boddy, L., Halvorsen, R., Stige, L. C., Sparks, T. H., Gange, A. C. and Stenseth, N. C. 2010. Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences. 277, pp. 1169-1177. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.1537

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2010. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research. 41, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00836

North-South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Barnes, A., Moran, D., West, J. S. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2010. North-South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 7, pp. 123-130. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0111

North-south divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Barnes, A., Moran, D., West, J. S. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2009. North-south divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/372051

Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Halford, N. G. 2009. Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate. Journal of Experimental Botany. 60, pp. 2791-2804. https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp164

Quantifying effects of simple wheat traits on yield in water-limited environments using a modelling approach

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Martre, P. and Jamieson, P. D. 2009. Quantifying effects of simple wheat traits on yield in water-limited environments using a modelling approach. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 149 (6-7), pp. 1095-1104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.01.006

Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. 2009. Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 6 (33), pp. 343-350. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2008.0285

Assessing the impact of climate change on the assembly and function of weed communities

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Storkey, J., Semenov, M. A. and Neve, P. 2008. Assessing the impact of climate change on the assembly and function of weed communities. Effects of Climate Change on Plants: Implications for Agriculture. Aspects of Applied Biology 88 . Association of Applied Biologists (AAB) Wellesbourne Warwick . pp. 15-21

Extreme impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Semenov, M. A. 2008. Extreme impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. Effects of Climate Change on Plants: Implications for Agriculture. Aspects of Applied Biology 88 . Association of Applied Biologists (AAB) Wellesbourne Warwick . pp. 37-38

Range and severity of phoma stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans ) of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) increased by global warming

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Evans, N., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., Gladders, P. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2008. Range and severity of phoma stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans ) of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) increased by global warming.

Climate Research: a focal point for the climate and ecosystem-impact research communities

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Stenseth, N. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2008. Climate Research: a focal point for the climate and ecosystem-impact research communities. Climate Research. 37 (1), p. 1. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00756

Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. 2008. Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator. Climate Research. 35 (3), pp. 203-212. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00731

Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in soil moisture characteristics on plant growth using a crop simulation model

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2008. Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in soil moisture characteristics on plant growth using a crop simulation model. Field Crops Research. 106, pp. 138-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2007.11.004

Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Evans, N., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., Gladders, P. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2008. Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 5, pp. 525-531. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1136

Severity of plant disease increased by global warming

G - Articles in popular magazines and other technical publications

Evans, N., Fitt, B. D. L., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A. and Gladders, P. 2007. Severity of plant disease increased by global warming. RRA Newsletter. Issue 25, p. 4.

The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Jaggard, K. W., Qi, A. and Semenov, M. A. 2007. The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004. The Journal of Agricultural Science. 145 (4), pp. 367-375. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0021859607006922

Utility of dynamical seasonal forecasts in predicting crop yield

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. 2007. Utility of dynamical seasonal forecasts in predicting crop yield. Climate Research. 34 (1), pp. 71-81. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr034071

Reconciling alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Jamieson, P. D., Brooking, I. R., Semenov, M. A., Mcmaster, G. S., White, J. W. and Porter, J. R. 2007. Reconciling alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat. Field Crops Research. 103, pp. 36-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2007.04.009

Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. 2007. Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 144 (1-2), pp. 127-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.02.003

Deconvoluting nitrogen use efficiency in wheat: a simulation study

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Jamieson, P. D. and Martre, P. 2007. Deconvoluting nitrogen use efficiency in wheat: a simulation study. European Journal of Agronomy. 26, pp. 283-294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2006.10.009

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Willis, J. C., Bohan, D. A., Choi, Y. H., Conrad, K. F. and Semenov, M. A. 2006. Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK. Global Change Biology. 12 (9), pp. 1643-1657. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01201.x

Using weather generators in crop modelling

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Semenov, M. A. 2006. Using weather generators in crop modelling. International Society of Horticultural Science (ISHS).

Modelling protein content and composition in relation to crop nitrogen dynamics for wheat

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Martre, P., Jamieson, P. D., Semenov, M. A., Zyskowski, R. F., Porter, J. R. and Triboi, E. 2006. Modelling protein content and composition in relation to crop nitrogen dynamics for wheat. European Journal of Agronomy. 25, pp. 138-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2006.04.007

Modelling the variability of UK sugar beet yields under climate change and husbandry adaptations

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Richter, G. M., Qi, A., Semenov, M. A. and Jaggard, K. W. 2006. Modelling the variability of UK sugar beet yields under climate change and husbandry adaptations. Soil Use and Management. 22 (1), pp. 39-47. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-2743.2006.00018.x

Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A., Potting, R. P. J., Semenov, M. A. and Glen, D. M. 2006. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics. Ecological Modelling. 190, pp. 336-350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.04.019

Assessing predictive skill of models to optimise crop management and design. Final report on Defra project AR0909

D1 - Technical reports: non-confidential

Sylvester-Bradley, R., Semenov, M. A., Lawless, C., Jaggard, K. W., Qi, A. and Foulkes, M. J. 2005. Assessing predictive skill of models to optimise crop management and design. Final report on Defra project AR0909.

Assessing lead-time for predicting wheat growth using a crop simulation model

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Lawless, C. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Assessing lead-time for predicting wheat growth using a crop simulation model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 135 (1-4), pp. 302-313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.01.002

Climate change, non-point pollution and land use: modelling interactions (End of Award report to ESRC on Rural Economy and Land Use Programme project RES 224 25 0002)

D1 - Technical reports: non-confidential

Hanley, N., Aftab, A., Black, A. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Climate change, non-point pollution and land use: modelling interactions (End of Award report to ESRC on Rural Economy and Land Use Programme project RES 224 25 0002).

Crop responses to climatic variation

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Porter, J. R. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. 360 (1463), pp. 2021-2035. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1752

The effect of diverse climates on the forecasting lead-time of crop simulation models

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Lawless, C. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. The effect of diverse climates on the forecasting lead-time of crop simulation models. Cambridge University Press (CUP).

Predicting a success of biological control of pest slugs using the slug-pathogenic nematode against pest slugs. Research grant report for grant MAF12241

D1 - Technical reports: non-confidential

Choi, Y., Semenov, M. A., Bohan, D. A. and Glen, D. M. 2005. Predicting a success of biological control of pest slugs using the slug-pathogenic nematode against pest slugs. Research grant report for grant MAF12241.

Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Richter, G. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agricultural Systems. 84 (1), pp. 77-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2004.06.011

A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2005. A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology. European Journal of Agronomy. 22, pp. 19-32.

Individual based modelling of temporal and spatial slug dynamics

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A. and Semenov, M. A. 2004. Individual based modelling of temporal and spatial slug dynamics. Cambridge University Press (CUP).

Modelling protein content and composition in wheat

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Jamieson, P. D., Martre, P., Samoil, V., Porter, J. R., Zyskowski, R., Semenov, M. A. and Triboi, E. 2004. Modelling protein content and composition in wheat. Fischer, T. (ed.) New Directions for a Diverse Planet: Proceedings 4th International Crop Science Congress, Brisbane, 26-September-1 October 2002 . Regional Institute, Gosford. pp. www.cropscience.org.au

Comments on the use of statistical tests in the comparison of stochastic weather generators by Qian et al. (2004)

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Welham, S. J. 2004. Comments on the use of statistical tests in the comparison of stochastic weather generators by Qian et al. (2004). Climate Research. 28 (1), pp. 83-84. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr028083

Modelling Deroceras reticulatum (Gastropoda) population dynamics based on daily temperature and rainfall

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A., Powers, S. J., Wiltshire, C. W., Glen, D. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2004. Modelling Deroceras reticulatum (Gastropoda) population dynamics based on daily temperature and rainfall. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 103, pp. 519-525.

Impacts of climate change on the agricultural industry: a review of research outputs from DEFRA's CC03 and related research programmes

D1 - Technical reports: non-confidential

Hopkins, A., Richter, G. M., Coleman, K., Jaggard, K. W., Glendining, M. J., Semenov, M. A., Qi, A., Audsley, E., Hossell, J. E., Clemence, B., Fuller, M., Winter, D. M. and Butler, A. 2004. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural industry: a review of research outputs from DEFRA's CC03 and related research programmes.

A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2003. A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology. Cambridge University Press (CUP).

Comparison between deterministic and probabilistic algorithms of bounded Kolmogorov complexity

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Semenov, M. A. 2003. Comparison between deterministic and probabilistic algorithms of bounded Kolmogorov complexity. Proceedings Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference, Chicago, 12-16 July 2003. pp. 260-263

Comparison of slug population dynamics at five sites in the UK

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Willis, J. C., Bohan, D. A., Choi, Y., Semenov, M. A., Brown, V. K. and Gussin, E. 2003. Comparison of slug population dynamics at five sites in the UK. Slugs and Snails: Agricultural, Veterinary and Environmental Perspectives. BCPC Symposium Proceedings No. 80 . British Crop Protection Council (BCPC). pp. 171-176

A rational basis for design of wheat canopy ideotypes for UK environments. Final report for DEFRA project AR0906

D1 - Technical reports: non-confidential

Parker, S., Semenov, M. A. and Lawless, C. 2003. A rational basis for design of wheat canopy ideotypes for UK environments. Final report for DEFRA project AR0906.

Linking climate change predictions with crop simulation models

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Semenov, M. A. 2003. Linking climate change predictions with crop simulation models. Proceedings BCPC International Congress - Crop Science and Technology 2003 . pp. 1181-1188

A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2003. A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology. Cambridge University Press (CUP).

Analysis of convergence of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation using a stochastic Lyapunov function

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Terkel, D. A. 2003. Analysis of convergence of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation using a stochastic Lyapunov function. Evolutionary Computation. 11, pp. 363-379.

Slugs and nematodes in a fighting arena - individual based models of parasitism

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A., Semenov, M. A., Potting, R. P. J. and Glen, D. M. 2003. Slugs and nematodes in a fighting arena - individual based models of parasitism. Slugs and Snails: Agricultural, Veterinary and Environmental Perspectives. British Crop Protection Council Symposium Proceedings No. 80 . British Crop Protection Council (BCPC). pp. 177-182

Modelling climatic impacts on yields of wheat and sugar beet in the UK

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Richter, G. M., Jaggard, K. W., Mitchell, R. A. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2002. Modelling climatic impacts on yields of wheat and sugar beet in the UK. Knowledge transfer initiative on impacts and adaptation to climate change in agriculture. Project and workshop report . pp. 10-12

The effect of timing of water availability on grain protein concentration of winter wheat

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Clarke, M. P., Gooding, M. J. and Semenov, M. A. 2002. The effect of timing of water availability on grain protein concentration of winter wheat. Abstracts 7th European Society of Agronomy Congress, Cordoba, 15-18 July 2002 .

Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Ewert, E., Rodriguez, D., Jamieson, P., Semenov, M. A., Mitchell, R. A. C., Goudriaan, J., Porter, J. R., Kimball, B. A., Pinter, P. J. Jr, Manderscheid, R., Weigel, H-J., Fangmeier, A., Fereres, E. and Villalobos, F. 2002. Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 93 (1-3), pp. 249-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00352-8

Convergence velocity of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Semenov, M. A. 2002. Convergence velocity of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation. Proceedings Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference, GECCO 2002, New York, 9-13 July 2002 . pp. 210-214

Drought risk assessment for UK winter wheat under climate change

G - Articles in popular magazines and other technical publications

Richter, G. M., Mitchell, R. A. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2002. Drought risk assessment for UK winter wheat under climate change. ARIA newsletter. Issue 6.

Drought - greater risk for future wheat production in England?

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Richter, G. M., Semenov, M. A. and Mitchell, R. A. C. 2002. Drought - greater risk for future wheat production in England? Abstracts 7th Congress of the European Society for Agronomy, Cordoba, 15-18 July 2002 .

Modelling the dynamics of slug and nematode interaction incorporating response to environmental variables

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Choi, Y-H., Powers, S. J., Bohan, D. A., Semenov, M. A., Glen, D. M., Wiltshire, C. W. and Brain, P. 2001. Modelling the dynamics of slug and nematode interaction incorporating response to environmental variables. Abstracts IMA Conference on Mathematical Modelling and Statistical Analysis of Infectious Diseases, Cardiff, 11-13 September 2001 .

Analysis of evolutionary search with mutators using a stochastic Lyapunov function

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Semenov, M. A. 2001. Analysis of evolutionary search with mutators using a stochastic Lyapunov function. Proceedings Genetics and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2001), San Francisco, 8-11 July 2001 . pp. 372-376

Modelling a slug population using differential equations

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Choi, Y-H., Powers, S. J., Bohan, D. A., Wiltshire, C. W., Glen, D. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. Modelling a slug population using differential equations. Abstracts Meeting of the OILB/IOBC Working Group on Integrated Control of Soil Pests, Subgroup on Integrated Control of Slugs and Snails, Lyons, 8-9 March 2001 .

Testing SIRIUS predictions against wheat data sets in the UK

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Richter, G. M., Semenov, M. A. and Mitchell, R. A. C. 2001. Testing SIRIUS predictions against wheat data sets in the UK. Abstracts 2nd International Symposium on Modelling Cropping Systems, Florence, 16-18 July 2001. pp. 165-166

Simplifying SIRIUS: development of a metamodel for wheat yield prediction

C2 - Non-edited contributions to conferences

Semenov, M. A., Brooks, R. J. and Jamieson, P. D. 2001. Simplifying SIRIUS: development of a metamodel for wheat yield prediction. Abstracts 2nd International Symposium on Modelling Cropping Systems, Florence, 16-18 July 2001.

Improving wheat model accuracy and suitability for regional impact assessment. Final report of the IMPETUS European Commission Project ENV4-CT97-0496

D1 - Technical reports: non-confidential

Mitchell, R. A. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. Improving wheat model accuracy and suitability for regional impact assessment. Final report of the IMPETUS European Commission Project ENV4-CT97-0496. IACR Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden.

Towards modelling quality in wheat - from grain nitrogen concentration to protein composition

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Jamieson, P. D., Stone, P. J. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. Towards modelling quality in wheat - from grain nitrogen concentration to protein composition. Wheat Quality. Aspects of Applied Biology 64 . pp. 111-126

The effect of the timing of water availability on soil nitrogen, nitrogen uptake and grain protein concentration of winter wheat

C1 - Edited contributions to conferences/learned societies

Clarke, M. P., Gooding, M. J. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. The effect of the timing of water availability on soil nitrogen, nitrogen uptake and grain protein concentration of winter wheat. Wheat Quality. Aspects of Applied Biology 64 . pp. 103-110

Simplifying Sirius: sensitivity analysis and development of a meta-model for wheat yield prediction

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Brooks, R. J., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2001. Simplifying Sirius: sensitivity analysis and development of a meta-model for wheat yield prediction. European Journal of Agronomy. 14 (1), pp. 43-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(00)00089-7

Modelling CO2 effects on wheat with varying nitrogen supplies

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Jamieson, P. D., Berntsen, J., Ewert, F., Kimball, B. A., Olesen, J. E., Pinter, P. J. Jr., Porter, J. R. and Semenov, M. A. 2000. Modelling CO2 effects on wheat with varying nitrogen supplies. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 82, pp. 27-37.

Modelling nitrogen uptake and redistribution in wheat

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Jamieson, P. D. and Semenov, M. A. 2000. Modelling nitrogen uptake and redistribution in wheat. Field Crops Research. 68, pp. 21-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4290(00)00103-9

Modelling the effects of climatic change and genetic modification on nitrogen use by wheat

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Porter, J. R., Leigh, R. A., Semenov, M. A. and Miglietta, F. 1995. Modelling the effects of climatic change and genetic modification on nitrogen use by wheat. European Journal of Agronomy. 4 (4), pp. 419-429. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(14)80094-4

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