Substantial increase in yield predicted by wheat ideotypes for Europe under future climate

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Senapati, N., Griffiths, S, Hawkesford, M. J., Shewry, P. R. and Semenov, M. A. 2020. Substantial increase in yield predicted by wheat ideotypes for Europe under future climate. Climate Research. 80 (3), p. 189–201.

AuthorsSenapati, N., Griffiths, S, Hawkesford, M. J., Shewry, P. R. and Semenov, M. A.
Abstract

A substantial increase in food production is needed for global food security. Europe is the largest wheat producer, delivering 35% of wheat globally, but its future genetic yield potential is yet unknown. We estimated the genetic yield potential of wheat in Europe under 2050 climate by designing in silico wheat ideotypes based on genetic variation in wheat germplasm. To evaluate the importance of heat and drought stresses around flowering, a critical stage in wheat development, sensitive and tolerant ideotypes were designed. Ideotype yields ranged from 9 to 17 t ha−1 across major wheat growing regions in Europe under 2050 climate. Both ideotypes showed a substantial increase in yield of 66−89% compared to current local cultivars under future climate. Key traits for wheat improvements under future climate were identified. Ideotype design is a powerful tool for estimating crop genetic yield potential in a target environment, along with the potential to accelerate breeding by providing target traits for improvements.

KeywordsClimate change; Wheat yield potential; Ideotype design; Crop modeling; Sirius crop model; LARS-WG
Year of Publication2020
JournalClimate Research
Journal citation80 (3), p. 189–201
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.3354/cr01602
Web address (URL)https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c080p189.pdf
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeDesigning Future Wheat (DFW) [ISPG]
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online18 Jun 2020
Publication process dates
Accepted04 May 2020
PublisherInter-Research
ISSN0936-577X

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