An agent-based model of farmer decision making: Application to shared water resources in Arid and semi-arid regions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

El-Fartassi, I., Milne, A. E., Metcalfe, H., El Alami, R., Diarra, A., Alonso Chavez, V., Zawadzka, J., Waine, T. W. and Constanje, R. 2025. An agent-based model of farmer decision making: Application to shared water resources in Arid and semi-arid regions. Agricultural Water Management. 310 (April), p. 109357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109357

AuthorsEl-Fartassi, I., Milne, A. E., Metcalfe, H., El Alami, R., Diarra, A., Alonso Chavez, V., Zawadzka, J., Waine, T. W. and Constanje, R.
Abstract

The study presents an agent-based modelling framework that integrates behavioural and biophysical models to investigate shared irrigation water management in an arid region. The behavioural model simulates farmers' decisions about their water irrigation sources (dam or groundwater) and whether to continue cultivating in the face of drought. This model was parameterised using survey data. The biophysical model component quantifies the impact of water availability and irrigation sources on soil salinity accumulation and its effects on crop productivity. Applied to the Al Haouz Basin, in Morocco, the integrated model reveals several key findings: (1) Increased groundwater access through water abstraction authorization can initially boost productivity but leads to widespread salinisation and farm abandonment, particularly under climate change scenarios. (2) Scenarios with reduced dam water availability demonstrate that mixed irrigation strategies mitigate short-term productivity losses but fail to prevent long-term soil salinity issues. (3) Land abandonment is significantly influenced by the level of water abstraction authorizations, with higher abstraction leading to more severe environmental degradation and social impacts. (4) Policy scenarios reveal that there is a theoretical optimal level of groundwater abstraction that maximises productivity while minimising land abandonment and salinity build-up. These results highlight the complex trade-offs between short-term gains and long-term sustainability, emphasising the need for holistic water governance policies that balance individual and collective interests.

KeywordsAgent-based modelling; Irrigation management; Morocco; Soil salinization; Water scarcity
Year of Publication2025
JournalAgricultural Water Management
Journal citation310 (April), p. 109357
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109357
Web address (URL)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109357
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderOffice Chérifien des Phosphate (OCP)
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeGrowing Health (WP3) - bio-inspired solutions for healthier agroecosystems: Discovery landscapes
Publisher's version
Supplemental file
Copyright license
CC BY 4.0
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online13 Feb 2025
Publication process dates
Accepted02 Feb 2025
PublisherElsevier
ISSN0378-3774

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