Reconciling global tipping point theories: insight from magnetic experiments

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Dearing, J. A., Thompson, R., Tooke, K. and Willcock, S. 2025. Reconciling global tipping point theories: insight from magnetic experiments . One Earth. 8 (7), p. 101358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101358

AuthorsDearing, J. A., Thompson, R., Tooke, K. and Willcock, S.
Abstract

Driven by a combination of global warming and unsustainable resource management, global tipping elements represent existential threats to Earth’s systems and communities. However, tipping point theory is still developing. Here, we reconcile alternative theories through a comparison of mathematical tipping point models and empirical experiments on micromagnet systems. We show how discontinuous change in spatially complex ecosystem models and multidomain magnetic materials represents common generic stress-response behaviour in systems that organise spatially when placed under stress. Such systems show ‘soft’ incremental rather than ‘hard’ abrupt change and may represent the majority of ecological, landscape and social-ecological systems. The findings emphasize how the classic fold bifurcation model should be restricted to describing simple systems. We explore the effects of stress magnitude and rate on ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ systems and draw insight for global tipping elements: scale-dependence, abrupt versus incremental change, reversibility, early warning signals, and positive social-economic tipping points.

KeywordsGlobal tipping points; Climate change; Abrupt change; Fold bifurcation; Reaction-diffusion; Hysteresis; Magnetic experiments; Busse balloon; Barkhausen steps; Scale-dependence
Year of Publication2025
JournalOne Earth
Journal citation8 (7), p. 101358
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101358
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeRecovery pathways for lake ecosystems
Resilient Farming Futures (WP2): Detecting agroecosystem ‘resilience’ using novel data science methods
Resilient Farming Futures
Publisher's version
Copyright license
CC BY
Accepted author manuscript
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online18 Jul 2025
Publication process dates
Accepted09 Jun 2025
PublisherElsevier

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