A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Willcock, S., Cooper, G. S., Addy, J. and Dearing, J. A. 2023. Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers. Nature Sustainability. 6, p. 1331–1342. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01157-x
Authors | Willcock, S., Cooper, G. S., Addy, J. and Dearing, J. A. |
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Abstract | A major concern for the world’s ecosystems is the possibility of collapse, where landscapes and the societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing frequencies of extreme events, and strengthening inter-system connections suggest that conventional modelling approaches based on incremental changes in a single stress may provide poor estimates of the impact of climate and human activities on ecosystems. We conduct experiments on four models that simulate abrupt changes in the Chilika lagoon fishery, the Easter Island community, forest dieback and lake water quality – representing ecosystems with a range of anthropogenic interactions. Collapses occur sooner under increasing levels of primary stress, but additional stresses and/or the inclusion of noise in all four models bring the collapses substantially closer to today by ~38-81%. We discuss the implications for further research and the need for humanity to be vigilant for signs that ecosystems are degrading even more rapidly than previously thought. |
Keywords | Climate change; Modelling; Regime shift; Resilience; Stress; Tipping point |
Year of Publication | 2023 |
Journal | Nature Sustainability |
Journal citation | 6, p. 1331–1342 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01157-x |
Open access | Published as ‘gold’ (paid) open access |
Funder | Natural Environment Research Council |
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council | |
Arts and Humanities Research Council | |
Economic and Social Research Council | |
Medical Research Council | |
Funder project or code | AgZero+ |
EnsemblES project – Using ensemble techniques to capture the accuracy and sensitivity of ecosystem service models | |
Scaling up Off-Grid Sanitation | |
MobilES - Using mobile-phone technology to capture ecosystem service information | |
Between environmental concerns and compliance | |
Resilient Farming Futures | |
Publisher's version | |
Accepted author manuscript | |
Supplemental file | |
Supplemental file | |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
Online | 22 Jun 2023 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 24 May 2023 |
Publisher | Springer Nature |
ISSN | 2398-9629 |
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