Model Ensembles of Ecosystem Services Fill Global Certainty and Capacity Gaps

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Willcock, S., Hooftman, D. A. P., Neugarten, R. A., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Barredo, J. I., Hickler, T., Kindermann, G., Lewis, A. R., Lindeskog, M., Martinez-Lopez, J. and Bullock, J. M. 2023. Model Ensembles of Ecosystem Services Fill Global Certainty and Capacity Gaps. Science Advances. 9 (14), p. eadf5492. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adf5492

AuthorsWillcock, S., Hooftman, D. A. P., Neugarten, R. A., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Barredo, J. I., Hickler, T., Kindermann, G., Lewis, A. R., Lindeskog, M., Martinez-Lopez, J. and Bullock, J. M.
Abstract

Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human wellbeing is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (‘the capacity gap’) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (‘the certainty gap’), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2-14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity – indicating accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local to global-scale movement towards ES sustainability.

KeywordsAccuracy; Ensemble; Implementation gap; Modelling; Nature’s contributions to people; Uncertainty
Year of Publication2023
JournalScience Advances
Journal citation9 (14), p. eadf5492
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adf5492
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderNatural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codeAgZero+
Publisher's version
Accepted author manuscript
Supplemental file
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online07 Apr 2023
Publication process dates
Accepted06 Mar 2023
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
ISSN2375-2548

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/98v60/model-ensembles-of-ecosystem-services-fill-global-certainty-and-capacity-gaps

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