Future climate change impacts on mulched maize production in an arid irrigation area
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Quan, H., Ding, D., Wu, L., Qiao, R., Dong, Q., Zhang, T., Feng, H., Wu, L. and Siddique, K. H. M. 2022. Future climate change impacts on mulched maize production in an arid irrigation area. Agricultural Water Management. 266, p. 107550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107550
| Authors | Quan, H., Ding, D., Wu, L., Qiao, R., Dong, Q., Zhang, T., Feng, H., Wu, L. and Siddique, K. H. M. |
|---|---|
| Abstract | Future climate change (FCC) and water scarcity significantly affect agricultural production in arid areas. Plastic film mulching (PM) combined with large irrigation amounts is popular for agricultural production in these areas. Crop model is an important tool for studying FCC’s effect on crop production and its countermeasures. In this study, after calibration and validation using measured values from a two-year field experiment, the SPACSYS (v 6.0) and modified DSSAT-CERES-Maize (v 4.7.0.0) models were used to evaluate the implementation of six management systems (three mulching measures: transparent film, black film, no film; two fertilization levels: high, low) and to optimize management measures under FCC. Both models well simulated maize’s anthesis and maturity dates, the final aboveground biomass, yield, and topsoil soil water content (SWC) compared with the measured values. SPACSYS simulated the maize growth and SWC under nitrogen stress better than DSSAT. Total 27 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive DSSAT and SPACSYS models with different irrigation schemes, including three irrigation amounts (I1, I2, I3) and four irrigation ratios (the proportion of total irrigation amount in different growing stages: T1, T2, T3, T4) to simulate crop phenology and yield under FCC in future decades (2040s and 2080s). Both models advanced the anthesis date (by 8.1–16.2 d in the 2040s and 12.8–20.3 d in the 2080s), maturity date (by 12.7–18.9 d in the 2040s and 19.1–24.8 d in the 2080s), and length of reproductive growth period (by 3.6–6.1 d in the 2040s and 5.8–11.0 d in the 2080s). The I1T1 scenario under transparent film mulching produced the highest yields (12.14–16.07% in the 2040s and 5.36–6.07% in the 2080s higher than the average). The I3T4 scenario maintained stable yields in the 2040s, decreasing by nearly 20% in the 2080s. Consequently, the I3T4 scenario could be the optimal management practice for balancing yield and irrigation for maize production in this arid area in the future decades. |
| Keywords | Arid irrigated agriculture; Modified crop model; Future climate change ; Plastic film mulching |
| Year of Publication | 2022 |
| Journal | Agricultural Water Management |
| Journal citation | 266, p. 107550 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107550 |
| Open access | Published as green open access |
| Funder | Natural Environment Research Council |
| Funder project or code | MIDST-CZ: Maximising Impact by Decision Support Tools for sustainable soil and water through UK-China Critical Zone science |
| Output status | Published |
| Publication dates | |
| Online | 09 Mar 2022 |
| Publication process dates | |
| Accepted | 12 Feb 2022 |
| Publisher | Elsevier Science Bv |
| ISSN | 0378-3774 |
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Quantifying the spatio-temporal drivers of planned vegetation restoration on ecosystem services at a large regional scale
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Liu, Y., Lu, Y., Fu, B-J., Harris, P. and Wu, L. 2019. Quantifying the spatio-temporal drivers of planned vegetation restoration on ecosystem services at a large regional scale. Science of the Total Environment. 650 (1), pp. 1029-1040. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.082
When multi-functional landscape meets critical zone science: advancing multi-disciplinary research for sustainable human well-being
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Luo, Y., Lu, Y., Fu, B., Harris, P., Wu, L. and Comber, A. 2019. When multi-functional landscape meets critical zone science: advancing multi-disciplinary research for sustainable human well-being. National Science Review. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwy003
Soil compaction effects upon litter decomposition in an arable field and implications for management of crop residues and headlands
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Carlesso, L., Beadle, A., Cook, S. M., Graham, H., Ritz, K., Sparkes, D., Wu, L. and Murray, P. J. 2019. Soil compaction effects upon litter decomposition in an arable field and implications for management of crop residues and headlands. Applied Soil Ecology. 134 (February), pp. 31-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsoil.2018.10.004
A synthetic analysis of livestock manure substitution effects on organic carbon changes in China's arable topsoil
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Ren, F., Zhang, X., Liu, J., Sun, N., Sun, Z., Wu, L. and Xu, M. 2018. A synthetic analysis of livestock manure substitution effects on organic carbon changes in China's arable topsoil. Catena. 171, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.06.036
Soil aggregate-associated organic carbon dynamics subjected to different types of land use: Evidence from 13C natural abundance
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Liu, Y., Liu, W., Wu, L., Liu, C., Wang, L., Chen, F. and Li, Z. 2018. Soil aggregate-associated organic carbon dynamics subjected to different types of land use: Evidence from 13C natural abundance. Ecological Engineering. 122 (15 October), pp. 295-302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2018.08.018
Response of crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency for wheat-maize cropping system to future climate change in northern China
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Liang, S., Li, Y., Zhang, X., Sun, Z., Sun, N., Duan, Y., Xu, M. and Wu, L. 2018. Response of crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency for wheat-maize cropping system to future climate change in northern China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 262, pp. 310-321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.07.019
Prediction of storm‐based nutrient loss incorporating the estimated runoff and soil loss at a slope scale on the Loess Plateau
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Shi, W., Huang, M. and Wu, L. 2018. Prediction of storm‐based nutrient loss incorporating the estimated runoff and soil loss at a slope scale on the Loess Plateau. Land Degradation & Development. 29 (9), pp. 2899-2910. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3028
Deep soil water storage varies with vegetation type and rainfall amount in the Loess Plateau of China
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Cao, R, Jia, X., Huang, L., Zhu, Y., Wu, L. and Shao, M. 2018. Deep soil water storage varies with vegetation type and rainfall amount in the Loess Plateau of China. Scientific Reports. 8 (12346). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-30850-7
Roles of instrumented farm-scale trials in trade-off assessments of pasture-based ruminant production systems
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Takahashi, T., Harris, P., Blackwell, M. S. A., Cardenas, L. M., Collins, A. L., Dungait, J. A. J., Hawkins, J. M. B., Misselbrook, T. H., McAuliffe, G. A., McFadzean, J. N., Murray, P. J., Orr, R. J., Rivero, M. J., Wu, L. and Lee, M. R. F. 2018. Roles of instrumented farm-scale trials in trade-off assessments of pasture-based ruminant production systems. Animal. 12 (8), pp. 1766-1776. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1751731118000502
Mineral N stock and nitrate accumulation in the 50 to 200 m profile on the Loess Plateau
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Jia, X., Zhu, Y., Huang, L., Wei, X., Fang, Y., Wu, L., Binley, A. and Shao, M. 2018. Mineral N stock and nitrate accumulation in the 50 to 200 m profile on the Loess Plateau. Science of the Total Environment. 633, p. 999–1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.249
How shallow and how many points of measurements are sufficient to estimate the deep profile mean soil water content of a hillslope in the Loess Plateau?
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Zhang, Y., Huang, M., Hu, W., Suo, L., Duan, L. and Wu, L. 2018. How shallow and how many points of measurements are sufficient to estimate the deep profile mean soil water content of a hillslope in the Loess Plateau? Geoderma. 314, pp. 85-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2017.11.013
Peri-urbanization may vary with vegetation restoration: A large scale regional analysis
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Fu, W., Lu, Y., Harris, P., Comber, A. and Wu, L. 2018. Peri-urbanization may vary with vegetation restoration: A large scale regional analysis. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening. 29, pp. 77-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2017.11.006
Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Ehrhardt, F., Soussana, J-F., Bellocchi, G., Grace, P., McAuliffe, R., Recous, S., Sandor, R., Smith, P., Snow, V., De Antoni Migliorati, M., Basso, B., Bhatia, A., Brilli, L., Doltra, J., Dorich, C. D., Doro, L., Fitton, N., Giacomini, S., Grant, B., Harrison, M., Jones, S., Kirschbaum, M., Klumpp, K., Laville, P., leonard, J., Liebig, M., Lieffering, M., Martin, R., Massad, R. S., Meier, E., Merbold, L., Moore, A., Myrgiotis, V., Newton, P., Pattey, E., Rolinski, S., Sharp, J., Smith, W., Wu, L. and Zhang, Q. 2018. Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions. Global Change Biology. 24 (2), p. e603–e616. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13965
Simulating greenhouse gas emissions and stocks of carbon and nitrogen in soil from a long-term no-till system in the North China Plain
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Zhang, X., Sun, Z., Liu, J., Ouyang, Z. and Wu, L. 2018. Simulating greenhouse gas emissions and stocks of carbon and nitrogen in soil from a long-term no-till system in the North China Plain. Soil & Tillage Research. 178 (May), pp. 32-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2017.12.013
Impact of two centuries of intensive agriculture on soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the UK
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Muhammed, S. E., Coleman, K., Wu, L., Bell, V. A., Davies, J. A. C., Carnell, E. J., Tomlinson, S. J., Dore, A. J., Dragosits, U., Naden, P. S., Glendining, M. J., Whitmore, A. P. and Tipping, E. 2018. Impact of two centuries of intensive agriculture on soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the UK. Science of the Total Environment. 634 (1 September), pp. 1486-1504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.378
Modelling field scale spatial variation in water run-off, soil moisture, N2O emissions and herbage biomass of a grazed pasture using the SPACSYS model
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Liu, Y., Li, Y., Harris, P., Cardenas, L. M., Dunn, R. M., Sint, H. M., Murray, P. J., Lee, M. R. F. and Wu, L. 2018. Modelling field scale spatial variation in water run-off, soil moisture, N2O emissions and herbage biomass of a grazed pasture using the SPACSYS model. Geoderma. 315, pp. 49-58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2017.11.029
Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change.
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Fronzek, S., Pirttioja, N., Carter, T. R., Bindi, M., Hoffman, H., Palosuo, T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Tao, F., Trnka, M., Acutis, M., Asseng, S., Baranowski, P., Basso, B., Bodin, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Deligios, P., Destain, M-F., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Ferrise, R., Francois, L., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Jacquemin, I., Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Krzyszczak, J., Loriet, I. J., Minet, J., Minguez, M. I., Montesino, M., Moriondo, M., Muller, M., Nendel, C., Ozturk, I., Perego, A., Rodriguez, A., Ruane, A. C., Ruget, F., Sanna, M., Semenov, M. A., Slawinski, C., Stratonovitch, P., Supit, I., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wu, L., Zhao, Z. and Rotter, R. P. 2018. Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change. Agricultural Systems. 159, pp. 209-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.08.004
Gauging policy-driven large-scale vegetation restoration programmes under a changing environment: their effectiveness and socioeconomic relationships
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Li, T., Lu, Y., Fu, B., Comber, A. J., Harris, P. and Wu, L. 2017. Gauging policy-driven large-scale vegetation restoration programmes under a changing environment: their effectiveness and socioeconomic relationships. Science of the Total Environment. 607-8, pp. 911-919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.07.044
A synthetic analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from manure amended agricultural soils in China
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Ren, F., Zhang, X., Liu, J., Sun, N., Wu, L. and Xu, M. 2017. A synthetic analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from manure amended agricultural soils in China. Scientific Reports. 7, p. 8123. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07793-6
Multi-model simulation of soil temperature, soil water content and biomass in Euro-Mediterranean grasslands: uncertainties and ensemble performance
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Sandor, R., Barcza, Z., Acutis, M., Doro, L., Hidy, D., Kochy, M., Minet, J., Lellei-Kovacs, E., Ma, S., Perego, A., Rolinksi, S., Ruget, F., Sanna, M., Seddaiu, G., Wu, L. and Bellocchi, G. 2017. Multi-model simulation of soil temperature, soil water content and biomass in Euro-Mediterranean grasslands: uncertainties and ensemble performance. European Journal of Agronomy. 88, pp. 22-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.06.006
A modified SCS-CN method incorporating storm duration and antecedent soil moisture estimation for runoff prediction
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Shi, W., Huang, M., Gongadze, K. and Wu, L. 2017. A modified SCS-CN method incorporating storm duration and antecedent soil moisture estimation for runoff prediction. Water Resources Management. 31, pp. 1713-1727. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1610-0
Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Yin, X., Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Baby, S., Beaudoin, N., Manevski, K., Palosuo, T., Nendel, C., Wu, L., Hoffmann, M., Hoffmann, H., Sharif, B., Armas-Herrera, C. M., Bindi, M., Charfeddine, M., Conradt, T., Constantin, J., Ewert, F., Ferrise, R., Gaiser, T., De Cortazar-Atauri, I. G., Giglio, L., Hlavinka, P., Lana, M., Launay, M., Louarn, G., Manderscheid, R., Mirschel, W., Moriondo, M., Ozturk, I., Pacholski,A., Ripoche-Wachterl, D., Rotter, R. P., Ruget, F., Trnka, M., Ventrella, D., Weigel, H-J. and Olesen, J. E. 2017. Multi-model uncertainty analysis in predicting grain N for crop rotations in Europe. European Journal of Agronomy. 84, pp. 152-165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2016.12.009
Performance of process-based models for simulation of grain N in crop rotations across Europe
A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Yin, X., Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Manevski, K., Baby, S., Beaudoin, N., Ozturk, I., Gaiser, T., Wu, L., Hoffmann, M., Charfeddine, M., Conradt, T., Constantin, J., Ewert, F., De Cortazar-Atauri, I. G., Giglio, L., Hlavinka, P., Hoffmann, H., Launay, M., Louarn, G., Manderscheid, R., Mary, B., Mirschel, W., Nendel, C., Pacholski, A., Palosuo, T., Ripoche-Wachter, D., Rotter, R. P., Ruget, F., Sharif, B., Trnka, M., Ventrella, D., Weigel, H-J. and Olesen, J. E. 2017. Performance of process-based models for simulation of grain N in crop rotations across Europe. Agricultural Systems. 154, pp. 63-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.03.005
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