Future climate change impacts on mulched maize production in an arid irrigation area

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Quan, H., Ding, D., Wu, L., Qiao, R., Dong, Q., Zhang, T., Feng, H., Wu, L. and Siddique, K. H. M. 2022. Future climate change impacts on mulched maize production in an arid irrigation area. Agricultural Water Management. 266, p. 107550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107550

AuthorsQuan, H., Ding, D., Wu, L., Qiao, R., Dong, Q., Zhang, T., Feng, H., Wu, L. and Siddique, K. H. M.
Abstract

Future climate change (FCC) and water scarcity significantly affect agricultural production in arid areas. Plastic film mulching (PM) combined with large irrigation amounts is popular for agricultural production in these areas. Crop model is an important tool for studying FCC’s effect on crop production and its countermeasures. In this study, after calibration and validation using measured values from a two-year field experiment, the SPACSYS (v 6.0) and modified DSSAT-CERES-Maize (v 4.7.0.0) models were used to evaluate the implementation of six management systems (three mulching measures: transparent film, black film, no film; two fertilization levels: high, low) and to optimize management measures under FCC. Both models well simulated maize’s anthesis and maturity dates, the final aboveground biomass, yield, and topsoil soil water content (SWC) compared with the measured values. SPACSYS simulated the maize growth and SWC under nitrogen stress better than DSSAT. Total 27 global climate models (GCMs) were used to drive DSSAT and SPACSYS models with different irrigation schemes, including three irrigation amounts (I1, I2, I3) and four irrigation ratios (the proportion of total irrigation amount in different growing stages: T1, T2, T3, T4) to simulate crop phenology and yield under FCC in future decades (2040s and 2080s). Both models advanced the anthesis date (by 8.1–16.2 d in the 2040s and 12.8–20.3 d in the 2080s), maturity date (by 12.7–18.9 d in the 2040s and 19.1–24.8 d in the 2080s), and length of reproductive growth period (by 3.6–6.1 d in the 2040s and 5.8–11.0 d in the 2080s). The I1T1 scenario under transparent film mulching produced the highest yields (12.14–16.07% in the 2040s and 5.36–6.07% in the 2080s higher than the average). The I3T4 scenario maintained stable yields in the 2040s, decreasing by nearly 20% in the 2080s. Consequently, the I3T4 scenario could be the optimal management practice for balancing yield and irrigation for maize production in this arid area in the future decades.

KeywordsArid irrigated agriculture; Modified crop model; Future climate change ; Plastic film mulching
Year of Publication2022
JournalAgricultural Water Management
Journal citation266, p. 107550
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107550
Open accessPublished as non-open access
FunderNatural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codeMIDST-CZ: Maximising Impact by Decision Support Tools for sustainable soil and water through UK-China Critical Zone science
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online09 Mar 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted12 Feb 2022
PublisherElsevier Science Bv
ISSN0378-3774

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