Climate change impacts on crop yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and maize (Zea mays) and soil organic carbon stocks in northern China

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Liu, C., Yang, H., Gongadze, K., Harris, P., Huang, M. and Wu, L. 2022. Climate change impacts on crop yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and maize (Zea mays) and soil organic carbon stocks in northern China. Agriculture - Basel. 12 (5), p. 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12050614

AuthorsLiu, C., Yang, H., Gongadze, K., Harris, P., Huang, M. and Wu, L.
Abstract

Agricultural system models provide an effective tool for forecasting crop productivity and nutrient budgets under future climate change. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on crop failure, grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) in northern China, using the SPACSYS model. The model was calibrated and validated with datasets from 20-year long-term experiments (1985–2004) for the Loess plateau, and then used to forecast production (2020–2049) under six sharing social-economic pathway climate scenarios for both wheat and maize crops with irrigation. Results suggested that warmer climatic scenarios might be favourable for reducing the crop failure rate and increasing the grain yield for winter wheat, while the same climatic scenarios were unfavourable for maize pro-duction in the region. Furthermore, future SOC stocks in the topsoil layer (0–30 cm) could increase but in the subsoil layer (30–100 cm) could decrease, regardless of the chosen crop.

KeywordsSPACSYS; Crop failure; Soil organic carbon; Modelling; Loess
Year of Publication2022
JournalAgriculture - Basel
Journal citation12 (5), p. 614
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12050614
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderNatural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codeMIDST-CZ: Maximising Impact by Decision Support Tools for sustainable soil and water through UK-China Critical Zone science
Modelling and managing critical zone relationships between soil, water and ecosystem processes across the Loess Plateau
Publisher's version
Accepted author manuscript
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online26 Apr 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted24 Apr 2022
PublisherMDPI
ISSN2077-0472

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