Which traits promote persistence of feral GM crops? Part 1: implications of environmental stochasticity

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Claessen, D., Gilligan, C. A., Lutman, P. J. W. and Van Den Bosch, F. 2005. Which traits promote persistence of feral GM crops? Part 1: implications of environmental stochasticity. Oikos. 110 (1), pp. 20-29.

AuthorsClaessen, D., Gilligan, C. A., Lutman, P. J. W. and Van Den Bosch, F.
Abstract

Transgenes in plants affect life history traits including seed survival and germination. With stochastic matrix models we predict population-level consequences of transgene induced life history changes. We assess systematically which changes in life history traits, resulting from genetic modification, may increase the risk of invasion and persistence of feral crops or increase fitness in case of introgression from arable fields into conspecific, feral populations. We apply our method to feral populations of oilseed rape. Like many annual weeds, oilseed rape depends critically on disturbance; in undisturbed habitats it is generally outcompeted by perennials. The associated inherent variability and unpredictability render deterministic models inappropriate. With a stochastic matrix model we study population growth rate, elasticities and quasi-extinction times. Our results indicate that changes in survival in the seed bank impact population growth and persistence most. Less important are dormancy, fecundity and seedling survival. The predicted distribution of extinction times is highly skewed, with some patches persisting for decades.

KeywordsEcology
Year of Publication2005
JournalOikos
Journal citation110 (1), pp. 20-29
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13667.x
Open accessPublished as non-open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or code508
513
ISSN00301299
PublisherWiley
Grant IDBBS/E/C/00004667

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