Designing strategies for epidemic control in a tree nursery: the case of ash dieback in the UK

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Alonso Chavez, V., Parnell, S. and Van Den Bosch, F. 2015. Designing strategies for epidemic control in a tree nursery: the case of ash dieback in the UK. Forests. 6 (11), pp. 4135-4145. https://doi.org/10.3390/f6114135

AuthorsAlonso Chavez, V., Parnell, S. and Van Den Bosch, F.
Abstract

Ash dieback is a fungal disease (causal agent Hymenoscyphus fraxineus) infecting Common ash (Fraxinus excelsior) throughout temperate Europe. The disease was first discovered in the UK in 2012 in a nursery in Southern England, in plants which had been imported from the Netherlands. After sampling other recently planted sites across England, more infected trees were found. Tree trade from outside and across the UK may have facilitated the spread of invasive diseases which threaten the sustainability of forestry business, ecological niches and amenity landscapes. Detecting a disease in a nursery at an early stage and knowing how likely it is for the disease to have spread further in the plant trade network, can help control an epidemic. Here, we test two simple sampling rules that 1) inform monitoring strategies to detect a disease at an early stage, and 2) inform the decision of tracking forward the disease after its detection. We apply these expressions to the case of ash dieback in the UK and test them in different scenarios after disease introduction. Our results are useful to inform policy makers’ decisions on monitoring for the control and spread of tree diseases through the nursery trade.

Keywordsash dieback; sampling; selling; epidemic; incidence; monitoring; nursery
Year of Publication2015
JournalForests
Journal citation6 (11), pp. 4135-4145
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/f6114135
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
Funder project or codeDelivering Sustainable Systems (SS) [ISPG]
Project: 5283
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online18 Nov 2015
Publication process dates
Accepted06 Nov 2015
PublisherMDPI
MDPI
Copyright licenseCC BY
ISSN1999-4907

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/8v128/designing-strategies-for-epidemic-control-in-a-tree-nursery-the-case-of-ash-dieback-in-the-uk

20 total views
9 total downloads
0 views this month
2 downloads this month
Download files as zip