Likelihood of Extreme Early Flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) Across the UK

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Hemming, D., Bell, J. R., Collier, R., Dunbar, T., Dunstone, N., Everatt, M., Eyre, D., Kaye, N., Korycinska, A., Pickup, J. and Scaife, A. A. 2022. Likelihood of Extreme Early Flight of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae) Across the UK. Journal of Economic Entomology. p. toac012. https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toac012

AuthorsHemming, D., Bell, J. R., Collier, R., Dunbar, T., Dunstone, N., Everatt, M., Eyre, D., Kaye, N., Korycinska, A., Pickup, J. and Scaife, A. A.
Abstract

Myzus persicae (Sulzer, Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a major global crop pest; it is the primary aphid vector for many damaging viruses and has developed resistance to most insecticides. In temperate regions, the risk of widespread crop infection and yield loss is heightened following warm winters, which encourage rapid population growth and early flight. Estimates of the frequency and magnitude of warm winters are, therefore, helpful for understanding and managing this risk. However, it is difficult to quantify the statistical distribution of climate events, particularly extremes, because climate observations represent just a small sample of the possible climate variations in a region. The purpose of this study was to establish a large-scale relationship between temperature and M. persicae observations across the UK and apply this to a very large ensemble of climate model simulations, which better sample the variability in climate, to quantify the current likelihood of extreme early M. persicae flight across the UK. The timing of M. persicae flight was shown to be significantly related to January-February mean temperature, where a 1°C warmer/cooler temperature relates to about 12 d earlier/later flight. Climate model simulations predict 40% likelihood of experiencing a year with unprecedented early M. persicae flight during the next decade in the UK. Results from this method can help crop managers assess the long-term viability of crops and management practices across the UK and provide early warning information for targeting pest surveillance activities on the locations and timings at highest risk of early M. persicae flight.

KeywordsBiosecurity; UNSEEN method; Climate variability; Pest risk management
Year of Publication2022
JournalJournal of Economic Entomology
Journal citationp. toac012
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1093/jee/toac012
Web address (URL)https://academic.oup.com/jee/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jee/toac012/6554840?login=false#.YkK6zNjNzU8.twitter
Open accessPublished as bronze (free) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeThe Rothamsted Insect Survey - National Capability [2017-2022]
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online28 Mar 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted19 Jan 2022
PublisherOxford Univ Press Inc
ISSN0022-0493

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/98845/likelihood-of-extreme-early-flight-of-myzus-persicae-hemiptera-aphididae-across-the-uk

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