Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Thackeray, S. J., Henrys, P. A., Hemming, D., Bell, J. R., Botham, M. S., Burthe, S., Helaouet, P., Johns, D. G., Jones, I. D., Leech, D. I., Mackay, E. B., Massimino, D., Atkinson, S., Bacon, P. J., Brereton, T. M., Carvalho, L., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Duck, C., Edwards, M., Elliott, J. M., Hall, S. J. G., Harrington, R., Pearce-Higgins, J. W., Hoye, T. T., Kruuk, L. E. B., Pemberton, J. M., Sparks, T. H., Thompson, P. M., White, I., Winfield, I. J. and Wanless, S. 2016. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels. Nature. 535 (7611), pp. 241-5.

AuthorsThackeray, S. J., Henrys, P. A., Hemming, D., Bell, J. R., Botham, M. S., Burthe, S., Helaouet, P., Johns, D. G., Jones, I. D., Leech, D. I., Mackay, E. B., Massimino, D., Atkinson, S., Bacon, P. J., Brereton, T. M., Carvalho, L., Clutton-Brock, T. H., Duck, C., Edwards, M., Elliott, J. M., Hall, S. J. G., Harrington, R., Pearce-Higgins, J. W., Hoye, T. T., Kruuk, L. E. B., Pemberton, J. M., Sparks, T. H., Thompson, P. M., White, I., Winfield, I. J. and Wanless, S.
Abstract

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5–2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1–14.8 days earlier on average).

Year of Publication2016
JournalNature
Journal citation535 (7611), pp. 241-5
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1038/nature18608
PubMed ID27362222
Open accessPublished as non-open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
National Environmental Research Council
Funder project or codeThe Rothamsted Insect Survey [2012-2017]
Delivering Sustainable Systems (SS) [ISPG]
Quantifying links between human influences on climate, shifting seasons and widespread ecosystem consequences
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online14 Jul 2016
Publication process dates
Accepted26 May 2016
PublisherSpringer Nature
Nature Publishing Group
Copyright licensePublisher copyright
ISSN0028-0836

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