Long‐term trends in migrating Brassicogethes aeneus in the UK

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Shortall, C. R., Cook, S. M., Mauchline, A. L. and Bell, J. R. 2024. Long‐term trends in migrating Brassicogethes aeneus in the UK. Pest Management Science. 80 (5), pp. 2294-2305. https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7501

AuthorsShortall, C. R., Cook, S. M., Mauchline, A. L. and Bell, J. R.
Abstract

BACKGROUND
The pollen beetle (Brassicogethes aeneus) causes significant yield loss in oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Predicting population changes remains a scientific challenge, especially
since its phenology and abundance varies dramatically over space and time. We used generalized additive models to investigate the long-term trends in pollen beetle annual,
seasonal and monthly counts from Rothamsted 12.2 m suction-traps. We hypothesised that the beetle's abundance is positively related to the area of oilseed rape at a national and regional level. We used random forest models to investigate the inter-generational relationship within years.
RESULTS
Although B. aeneus annual counts and area of oilseed rape grown in the UK both increased by 162% and 113%, respectively, over the time period, they were not significantly related. The size of the immigrating pollen beetle population (up to June 1st) can be explained both by the size of the population in the previous summer and prevailing winter temperatures, indicating a positive feedback mechanism.
CONCLUSION
Currently, pollen beetle numbers continue to increase in the UK, meaning that control issues may persist, however the relationship between counts in spring, during the susceptible phase of the crop, and counts in the previous summer indicates that it may be possible to forecast the counts of the spring migration of B. aeneus a few months in advance using suction-trap samples, which could aid decisions on control options.

KeywordsPollen beetle; Meligethes aeneus; Monitoring; Decision support; Suction-trap
Year of Publication2024
JournalPest Management Science
Journal citation80 (5), pp. 2294-2305
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.7501
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeBBSRC Strategic Programme in Smart Crop Protection
The Rothamsted Insect Survey - National Capability [2017-2022]
Publisher's version
Accepted author manuscript
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online10 Apr 2023
Publication process dates
Accepted07 Apr 2023
Submitted09 Feb 2023
PublisherWiley
ISSN1526-498X

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/98w44/long-term-trends-in-migrating-brassicogethes-aeneus-in-the-uk

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