Stepwise model parametrisation using satellite imagery and hemispherical photography: Tuning AquaCrop sensitive parameters for improved winter wheat yield predictions in semi-arid regions

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Oulaid, B., Milne, A. E., Waine, T., Alami, R. E., Rafiqi, M. and Corstanje, R. 2024. Stepwise model parametrisation using satellite imagery and hemispherical photography: Tuning AquaCrop sensitive parameters for improved winter wheat yield predictions in semi-arid regions. Field Crops Research. 309, p. 109327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2024.109327

AuthorsOulaid, B., Milne, A. E., Waine, T., Alami, R. E., Rafiqi, M. and Corstanje, R.
Abstract

Crop models are complex with many parameters, which has limited their application. Here we present an approach which both removes the model complexity through reducing the parameter dimensionality through sensitivity analysis, and presents a subsequent efficient approach to model parameterisation using swarm optimisation. We do this for two key model outputs, crop canopy and yield, and for two types of observational data, hemispheric photographs and Landsat7 imagery. Importantly we compare the usefulness of these two sources of data in terms of accurate yield prediction. The results showed that the dominant model parameters that predict canopy cover were generally consistent across the fields, with the exception of those related water stress. Although mid-season canopy cover extracted from Landsat7 was underestimated, good agreement was found between the simulated and observed canopy cover for both sources of data. Subsequently, less accurate yield predictions were achieved with the Landsat7 compared to the hemispherical photography-based parametrizations. Despite the small differences in the canopy predictions, the implications for yield prediction were substantial with the parametrization based on hemispherical photography providing far more accurate estimates of yield. There are, however, additional resource implications associated with hemispherical photography. We evaluate these trade-offs, providing model parametrization sets and demonstrating the potential of satellite imagery to assist AquaCrop, particularly on large scales where ground measurements are challenging.

KeywordsCrop modelling; Canopy cover; Soil fertility modelling; Model performance; Wheat yield
Year of Publication2024
JournalField Crops Research
Journal citation309, p. 109327
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2024.109327
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderOffice Chérifien des Phosphate (OCP)
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Cranfield University
Funder project or codeS2N - Soil to Nutrition [ISPG]
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online08 Mar 2024
Publication process dates
Accepted27 Feb 2024
PublisherElsevier Science Bv
ISSN0378-4290

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