A - Papers appearing in refereed journals
Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A. K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A. M., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J. W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y. 2016. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change. 6 (12), pp. 1130-1138. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115
Authors | Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A. K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A. M., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J. W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y. |
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Abstract | The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. |
Year of Publication | 2016 |
Journal | Nature Climate Change |
Journal citation | 6 (12), pp. 1130-1138 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115 |
Open access | Published as non-open access |
Funder | Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council |
Funder project or code | FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub: MACSUR-Partner 25 |
Output status | Published |
Publication dates | |
Online | 12 Sep 2016 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 02 Aug 2016 |
Publisher | Springer Nature |
Nature Publishing Group | |
Copyright license | Publisher copyright |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/8v38w/similar-estimates-of-temperature-impacts-on-global-wheat-yield-by-three-independent-methods
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