Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A. K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A. M., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J. W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y. 2016. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change. 6 (12), pp. 1130-1138.

AuthorsLiu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D. B., Martre, P., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Jones, J. W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P. K., Alderman, P. D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A. J., Deryng, D., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Folberth, C., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Kimball, B. A., Koehler, A. K., Kumar, S. N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G. J., Olesen, J. E., Ottman, M. J., Palosuo, T., Prasad, P. V. V., Priesack, E., Pugh, T. A. M., Reynolds, M., Rezaei, E. E., Rötter, R. P., Schmid, E., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stehfest, E., Stöckle, C. O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Waha, K., Wall, G. W., Wang, E., White, J. W., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y.
Abstract

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Keywords
Year of Publication2016
JournalNature Climate Change
Journal citation6 (12), pp. 1130-1138
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1038/nclimate3115
Open accessPublished as non-open access
Funder project or codeFACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub: MACSUR-Partner 25
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online12 Sep 2016
Publication process dates
Accepted02 Aug 2016
Copyright licensePublisher copyright
PublisherSpringer Nature
Nature Publishing Group
ISSN1758-678X

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