Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P., Alghabari, F. and Gooding, M. J. 2014. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change. Journal of Cereal Science. 59 (3), pp. 245-256.

AuthorsSemenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P., Alghabari, F. and Gooding, M. J.

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

Keywordswheat ideotype; crop improvement; heat and drought tolerance; crop modelling; impact assessment; Sirius
Year of Publication2014
JournalJournal of Cereal Science
Journal citation59 (3), pp. 245-256
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeWheat
[20:20 Wheat] Systems approaches to crop improvement
Genetic and physiology of wheat development to flowering: tools to breed to improved adaption and yield potential: ADAPTAWHEAT
Publisher's version
Copyright license
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online24 Jan 2014
Publication process dates
Accepted04 Jan 2014
Academic Press Ltd- Elsevier Science Ltd

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