Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Semenov, M. A. and Shewry, P. R. 2011. Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Scientific Reports. 1, p. 66.

AuthorsSemenov, M. A. and Shewry, P. R.

New crop cultivars will be required for a changing climate characterised by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe. However, the uncertainty in climate predictions poses a challenge to crop scientists and breeders who have limited time and resources and must select the most appropriate traits for improvement. Modelling is a powerful tool to quantify future threats to crops and hence identify targets for improvement. We have used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate scenarios to predict impacts of heat stress and drought on winter wheat in Europe. Despite the lower summer precipitation projected for 2050s across Europe, relative yield losses from drought is predicted to be smaller in the future, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought. By contrast, the risk of heat stress around flowering will increase, potentially resulting in substantial yield losses for heat sensitive cultivars commonly grown in northern Europe.

Year of Publication2011
JournalScientific Reports
Journal citation1, p. 66
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeCentre for Mathematical and Computational Biology (MCB)
Centre for Crop Genetic Improvement (CGI)
Improving water use efficiency and drought tolerance in UK winter wheats - Joint project with ACS and BAB
Assessing the impact of climate change on the assembly and function of arable plant communities - joint project with PIE and BAB
Application of non-linear mathematics and stochastic modelling to complex biological systems
Cereal seed composition and end use quality
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Print18 Aug 2011
Publication process dates
Accepted29 Jul 2011
Copyright licenseCC BY
PublisherNature Publishing Group

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