A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations

 

Rodriguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Palosuo, T., Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S., Lorite, I. J., Ferrise, R., Pirttioja, N., Bindi, M., Baronowski, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Hoffman, H., Hohn, J. G., Jurecka, F., Kersebaum, K. C., Krzyszczak, J., Lana, M., Mechiche-Alami, A., Minet, J., Montesino, M., Nendel, C., Porter, J. R, Ruget, F., Semenov, M. A., Steinmetz, Z., Stratonovitch, P., Supit, I., Tao, F., Trnka, M., de Wit, A. and Rotter, R. P. 2019. Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations . Agricultural and forest meteorology. 264, pp. 351-362.
AuthorsRodriguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Palosuo, T., Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S., Lorite, I. J., Ferrise, R., Pirttioja, N., Bindi, M., Baronowski, P., Buis, S., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Ewert, F., Gaiser, T., Hlavinka, P., Hoffman, H., Hohn, J. G., Jurecka, F., Kersebaum, K. C., Krzyszczak, J., Lana, M., Mechiche-Alami, A., Minet, J., Montesino, M., Nendel, C., Porter, J. R, Ruget, F., Semenov, M. A., Steinmetz, Z., Stratonovitch, P., Supit, I., Tao, F., Trnka, M., de Wit, A. and Rotter, R. P.
Abstract

Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.

KeywordsWheat adaptation
Uncertainty
Climate change
Decision support
Response surface
Outcome confidence
Year of Publication2019
JournalAgricultural and forest meteorology
Journal citation264, pp. 351-362
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.018
Publication dates
Online09 Oct 2018
Copyright licenseCC BY
PublisherElsevier Science Bv
ISSN0168-1923

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Semenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P., Alghabari, F. and Gooding, M. J. 2014. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change. Journal of Cereal Science. 59, pp. 245-256.

A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe
Storkey, J., Stratonovitch, P., Chapman, D. S., Vidotto, F. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the distribution of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe. PLOS ONE. 9, p. e88156.

An objective approach to model reduction: application to the Sirius wheat model
Crout, N. M. J., Craigon, J., Cox, G. M., Jao, Y., Tarsitano, D., Wood, A. T. A. and Semenov, M. A. 2014. An objective approach to model reduction: application to the Sirius wheat model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 189-190, pp. 211-219.

Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate
Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2013. Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate. Food and Energy Security. 2, pp. 185-196.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change
Asseng, S., Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2013. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change. 3, pp. 827-832.

Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set
Semenov, M. A., Pilkington-Bennett, S. and Calanca, P. 2013. Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set. Climate Research. 57, pp. 1-9.

Reply to Gange et al: Climate-driven changes in the fungal fruiting season in the United Kingdom
Kauserud, H., Heegaard, E., Buntgen, U., Halvorsen, R., Egli, S., Senn-Irlet, B., Krisai-Greilhuber, I., Damon, W., Norden, J., Hoiland, K., Kirk, P. M., Semenov, M. A., Stenseth, N. C. and Boddy, L. 2013. Reply to Gange et al: Climate-driven changes in the fungal fruiting season in the United Kingdom. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 110, p. E335.

Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models
Hoglind, M., Thorsen, S. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2013. Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 170, pp. 103-113.

Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database
Calanca, P. and Semenov, M. A. 2013. Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 113, pp. 445-455.

A process-based approach to modelling impacts of climate change on the damage niche of an agricultural weed
Stratonovitch, P., Storkey, J. and Semenov, M. A. 2012. A process-based approach to modelling impacts of climate change on the damage niche of an agricultural weed. Global Change Biology. 18 (6), pp. 2071-2080.

Warming-induced shift in European mushroom fruiting phenology
Kauserud, H., Heegaard, E., Buntgen, U., Halvorsen, R., Egli, S., Senn-Irlet, B., Krisai-Greilhuber, I., Damon, W., Sparks, T., Norden, J., Hoiland, K., Kirk, P., Semenov, M. A., Boddy, L. and Stenseth, N. C. 2012. Warming-induced shift in European mushroom fruiting phenology. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 109, pp. 14488-14493.

Future change of daily precipitation indices in Japan: a stochastic weather generator-based bootstrap approach to provide probabilistic climate information
Iizumi, T., Takayabu, I., Dairaku, K., Kusaka, H., Nishimori, M., Sakurai, G., Ishizaki, M. N., Adachi, S. A. and Semenov, M. A. 2012. Future change of daily precipitation indices in Japan: a stochastic weather generator-based bootstrap approach to provide probabilistic climate information. Journal of Geophysical Research. 117, p. D11114.

Simulation of environmental and genotypic variations of final leaf number and anthesis date for wheat
He, J., Le Gouis, J., Stratonovitch, P., Allard, V., Gaju, O., Heumez, E., Orford, S., Griffiths, S., Snape, J. W., Foulkes, M. J., Semenov, M. A. and Martre, P. 2012. Simulation of environmental and genotypic variations of final leaf number and anthesis date for wheat. European Journal of Agronomy. 42, pp. 22-33.

Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions
Semenov, M. A., Mitchell, R. A. C., Whitmore, A. P., Hawkesford, M. J., Parry, M. A. J. and Shewry, P. R. 2012. Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions. Nature Climate Change. 2, pp. 380-382.

ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan
Iizumi, T., Semenov, M. A., Nishimori, M., Ishigooka, Y. and Kuwagata, T. 2012. ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences. 370, pp. 1121-1139.

Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe
Semenov, M. A. and Shewry, P. R. 2011. Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Scientific Reports. 1, p. 66 (5pp).

Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees
Luedeling, E., Girvetz, E. H., Semenov, M. A. and Brown, P. H. 2011. Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PLOS ONE. 6, p. e20155 (13pp).

Erratum: The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape
Evans, N., Butterworth, M. H., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., West, J. S., Barnes, A., Moran, D. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2011. Erratum: The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security. 3, pp. 117-120.

Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK
Madgwick, J. W., West, J. S., Wright, R. P., Semenov, M. A., Townsend, J. A., Turner, J. A. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2011. Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK. European Journal of Plant Pathology. 130 (1), pp. 117-131.

Preface (to Agriculture in a changing climate: special issue of Climate Research)
Tarquis, A. M., Gobin, A. and Semenov, M. A. 2010. Preface (to Agriculture in a changing climate: special issue of Climate Research).

ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe
Semenov, M. A., Donatelli, M., Stratonovitch, P., Chatzidaki, E. and Baruth, B. 2010. ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe. Climate Research. 44 (1), pp. 3-15.

Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change
Barnes, A. P., Wreford, A., Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Moran, D., Evans, N. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2010. Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change. The Journal of Agricultural Science. 148, pp. 683-694.

Transient responses to increasing CO2 and climate change in an unfertilized grass-clover sward
Lazzarotto, P., Calanca, P., Semenov, M. A. and Fuhrer, J. 2010. Transient responses to increasing CO2 and climate change in an unfertilized grass-clover sward. Climate Research. 41, pp. 221-232.

The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape
Evans, N., Butterworth, M. H., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., West, J. S., Barnes, A., Moran, D. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2010. The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security. 2, pp. 143-156.

Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi
Kauserud, H., Heegaard, E., Semenov, M. A., Boddy, L., Halvorsen, R., Stige, L. C., Sparks, T. H., Gange, A. C. and Stenseth, N. C. 2010. Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences. 277, pp. 1169-1177.

Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts
Semenov, M. A. and Stratonovitch, P. 2010. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research. 41, pp. 1-14.

North-South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England
Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Barnes, A., Moran, D., West, J. S. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2010. North-South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 7, pp. 123-130.

North-south divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England
Butterworth, M. H., Semenov, M. A., Barnes, A., Moran, D., West, J. S. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2009. North-south divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. pp. 372051

Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate
Semenov, M. A. and Halford, N. G. 2009. Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate. Journal of Experimental Botany. 60, pp. 2791-2804.

Quantifying effects of simple wheat traits on yield in water-limited environments using a modelling approach
Semenov, M. A., Martre, P. and Jamieson, P. D. 2009. Quantifying effects of simple wheat traits on yield in water-limited environments using a modelling approach. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 149, pp. 1095-1104.

Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales
Semenov, M. A. 2009. Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 6, pp. 343-350.

Assessing the impact of climate change on the assembly and function of weed communities
Storkey, J., Semenov, M. A. and Neve, P. 2008. Assessing the impact of climate change on the assembly and function of weed communities. Effects of Climate Change on Plants: Implications for Agriculture. Aspects of Applied Biology 88 . Association of Applied Biologists (AAB) Wellesbourne Warwick . pp. 15-21

Extreme impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales
Semenov, M. A. 2008. Extreme impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. Effects of Climate Change on Plants: Implications for Agriculture. Aspects of Applied Biology 88 . Association of Applied Biologists (AAB) Wellesbourne Warwick . pp. 37-38

Range and severity of phoma stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans ) of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) increased by global warming
Evans, N., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., Gladders, P. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2008. Range and severity of phoma stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans ) of winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus) increased by global warming. pp. S2.104-S2.105

Climate Research: a focal point for the climate and ecosystem-impact research communities
Stenseth, N. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2008. Climate Research: a focal point for the climate and ecosystem-impact research communities. Climate Research. 37 (1), p. 1.

Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator
Semenov, M. A. 2008. Simulation of extreme weather events by a stochastic weather generator. Climate Research. 35, pp. 203-212.

Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in soil moisture characteristics on plant growth using a crop simulation model
Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2008. Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in soil moisture characteristics on plant growth using a crop simulation model. Field Crops Research. 106, pp. 138-147.

Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming
Evans, N., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A., Gladders, P. and Fitt, B. D. L. 2008. Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 5, pp. 525-531.

Severity of plant disease increased by global warming
Evans, N., Fitt, B. D. L., Baierl, A., Semenov, M. A. and Gladders, P. 2007. Severity of plant disease increased by global warming.

The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004
Jaggard, K. W., Qi, A. and Semenov, M. A. 2007. The impact of climate change on sugarbeet yield in the UK: 1976-2004. The Journal of Agricultural Science. 145, pp. 367-375.

Utility of dynamical seasonal forecasts in predicting crop yield
Semenov, M. A. and Doblas-Reyes, F. J. 2007. Utility of dynamical seasonal forecasts in predicting crop yield. Climate Research. 34, pp. 71-81.

Reconciling alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat
Jamieson, P. D., Brooking, I. R., Semenov, M. A., Mcmaster, G. S., White, J. W. and Porter, J. R. 2007. Reconciling alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat. Field Crops Research. 103, pp. 36-41.

Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK
Semenov, M. A. 2007. Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 144, pp. 127-138.

Deconvoluting nitrogen use efficiency in wheat: a simulation study
Semenov, M. A., Jamieson, P. D. and Martre, P. 2007. Deconvoluting nitrogen use efficiency in wheat: a simulation study. European Journal of Agronomy. 26, pp. 283-294.

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK
Willis, J. C., Bohan, D. A., Choi, Y. H., Conrad, K. F. and Semenov, M. A. 2006. Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK. Global Change Biology. 12 (9), pp. 1643-1657.

Using weather generators in crop modelling
Semenov, M. A. 2006. Using weather generators in crop modelling. pp. 93-100

Modelling protein content and composition in relation to crop nitrogen dynamics for wheat
Martre, P., Jamieson, P. D., Semenov, M. A., Zyskowski, R. F., Porter, J. R. and Triboi, E. 2006. Modelling protein content and composition in relation to crop nitrogen dynamics for wheat. European Journal of Agronomy. 25, pp. 138-154.

Modelling the variability of UK sugar beet yields under climate change and husbandry adaptations
Richter, G. M., Qi, A., Semenov, M. A. and Jaggard, K. W. 2006. Modelling the variability of UK sugar beet yields under climate change and husbandry adaptations. Soil Use and Management. 22 (1), pp. 39-47.

Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics
Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A., Potting, R. P. J., Semenov, M. A. and Glen, D. M. 2006. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics. Ecological Modelling. 190, pp. 336-350.

Assessing predictive skill of models to optimise crop management and design. Final report on Defra project AR0909
Sylvester-Bradley, R., Semenov, M. A., Lawless, C., Jaggard, K. W., Qi, A. and Foulkes, M. J. 2005. Assessing predictive skill of models to optimise crop management and design. Final report on Defra project AR0909.

Assessing lead-time for predicting wheat growth using a crop simulation model
Lawless, C. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Assessing lead-time for predicting wheat growth using a crop simulation model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 135, pp. 302-313.

Climate change, non-point pollution and land use: modelling interactions (End of Award report to ESRC on Rural Economy and Land Use Programme project RES 224 25 0002)
Hanley, N., Aftab, A., Black, A. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Climate change, non-point pollution and land use: modelling interactions (End of Award report to ESRC on Rural Economy and Land Use Programme project RES 224 25 0002).

Crop responses to climatic variation
Porter, J. R. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. 360, pp. 2021-2035.

The effect of diverse climates on the forecasting lead-time of crop simulation models
Lawless, C. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. The effect of diverse climates on the forecasting lead-time of crop simulation models. pp. 322-323

Predicting a success of biological control of pest slugs using the slug-pathogenic nematode against pest slugs. Research grant report for grant MAF12241
Choi, Y., Semenov, M. A., Bohan, D. A. and Glen, D. M. 2005. Predicting a success of biological control of pest slugs using the slug-pathogenic nematode against pest slugs. Research grant report for grant MAF12241.

Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks
Richter, G. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2005. Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks. Agricultural Systems. 84 (1), pp. 77-97.

A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology
Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2005. A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology. European Journal of Agronomy. 22, pp. 19-32.

Individual based modelling of temporal and spatial slug dynamics
Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A. and Semenov, M. A. 2004. Individual based modelling of temporal and spatial slug dynamics. pp. 249-250

Modelling protein content and composition in wheat
Jamieson, P. D., Martre, P., Samoil, V., Porter, J. R., Zyskowski, R., Semenov, M. A. and Triboi, E. 2004. Modelling protein content and composition in wheat. Fischer, T. (ed.) New Directions for a Diverse Planet: Proceedings 4th International Crop Science Congress, Brisbane, 26-September-1 October 2002 . Regional Institute, Gosford. pp. www.cropscience.org.au

Comments on the use of statistical tests in the comparison of stochastic weather generators by Qian et al.(2004)
Semenov, M. A. and Welham, S. J. 2004. Comments on the use of statistical tests in the comparison of stochastic weather generators by Qian et al.(2004). Climate Research. 28, pp. 83-84.

Modelling Deroceras reticulatum (Gastropoda) population dynamics based on daily temperature and rainfall
Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A., Powers, S. J., Wiltshire, C. W., Glen, D. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2004. Modelling Deroceras reticulatum (Gastropoda) population dynamics based on daily temperature and rainfall. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 103, pp. 519-525.

Impacts of climate change on the agricultural industry: a review of research outputs from DEFRA's CC03 and related research programmes
Hopkins, A., Richter, G. M., Coleman, K., Jaggard, K. W., Glendining, M. J., Semenov, M. A., Qi, A., Audsley, E., Hossell, J. E., Clemence, B., Fuller, M., Winter, D. M. and Butler, A. 2004. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural industry: a review of research outputs from DEFRA's CC03 and related research programmes.

A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology
Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2003. A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology. pp. 483

Comparison between deterministic and probabilistic algorithms of bounded Kolmogorov complexity
Semenov, M. A. 2003. Comparison between deterministic and probabilistic algorithms of bounded Kolmogorov complexity. Proceedings Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference, Chicago, 12-16 July 2003. pp. 260-263

Comparison of slug population dynamics at five sites in the UK
Willis, J. C., Bohan, D. A., Choi, Y., Semenov, M. A., Brown, V. K. and Gussin, E. 2003. Comparison of slug population dynamics at five sites in the UK. Slugs and Snails: Agricultural, Veterinary and Environmental Perspectives. BCPC Symposium Proceedings No. 80 . British Crop Protection Council (BCPC). pp. 171-176

A rational basis for design of wheat canopy ideotypes for UK environments. Final report for DEFRA project AR0906
Parker, S., Semenov, M. A. and Lawless, C. 2003. A rational basis for design of wheat canopy ideotypes for UK environments. Final report for DEFRA project AR0906.

Linking climate change predictions with crop simulation models
Semenov, M. A. 2003. Linking climate change predictions with crop simulation models. Proceedings BCPC International Congress - Crop Science and Technology 2003 . pp. 1181-1188

A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology
Lawless, C., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2003. A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology. pp. 483-484

Analysis of convergence of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation using a stochastic Lyapunov function
Semenov, M. A. and Terkel, D. A. 2003. Analysis of convergence of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation using a stochastic Lyapunov function. Evolutionary Computation. 11, pp. 363-379.

Slugs and nematodes in a fighting arena - individual based models of parasitism
Choi, Y. H., Bohan, D. A., Semenov, M. A., Potting, R. P. J. and Glen, D. M. 2003. Slugs and nematodes in a fighting arena - individual based models of parasitism. Slugs and Snails: Agricultural, Veterinary and Environmental Perspectives. British Crop Protection Council Symposium Proceedings No. 80 . British Crop Protection Council (BCPC). pp. 177-182

Modelling climatic impacts on yields of wheat and sugar beet in the UK
Richter, G. M., Jaggard, K. W., Mitchell, R. A. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2002. Modelling climatic impacts on yields of wheat and sugar beet in the UK. Knowledge transfer initiative on impacts and adaptation to climate change in agriculture. Project and workshop report . pp. 10-12

The effect of timing of water availability on grain protein concentration of winter wheat
Clarke, M. P., Gooding, M. J. and Semenov, M. A. 2002. The effect of timing of water availability on grain protein concentration of winter wheat. Abstracts 7th European Society of Agronomy Congress, Cordoba, 15-18 July 2002 .

Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions
Ewert, E., Rodriguez, D., Jamieson, P., Semenov, M. A., Mitchell, R. A. C., Goudriaan, J., Porter, J. R., Kimball, B. A., Pinter, P. J. Jr, Manderscheid, R., Weigel, H-J., Fangmeier, A., Fereres, E. and Villalobos, F. 2002. Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 93 (1-3), pp. 249-266.

Convergence velocity of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation
Semenov, M. A. 2002. Convergence velocity of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation. Proceedings Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference, GECCO 2002, New York, 9-13 July 2002 . pp. 210-214

Drought risk assessment for UK winter wheat under climate change
Richter, G. M., Mitchell, R. A. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2002. Drought risk assessment for UK winter wheat under climate change.

Drought - greater risk for future wheat production in England?
Richter, G. M., Semenov, M. A. and Mitchell, R. A. C. 2002. Drought - greater risk for future wheat production in England? Abstracts 7th Congress of the European Society for Agronomy, Cordoba, 15-18 July 2002 .

Modelling the dynamics of slug and nematode interaction incorporating response to environmental variables
Choi, Y-H., Powers, S. J., Bohan, D. A., Semenov, M. A., Glen, D. M., Wiltshire, C. W. and Brain, P. 2001. Modelling the dynamics of slug and nematode interaction incorporating response to environmental variables. Abstracts IMA Conference on Mathematical Modelling and Statistical Analysis of Infectious Diseases, Cardiff, 11-13 September 2001 .

Analysis of evolutionary search with mutators using a stochastic Lyapunov function
Semenov, M. A. 2001. Analysis of evolutionary search with mutators using a stochastic Lyapunov function. Proceedings Genetics and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2001), San Francisco, 8-11 July 2001 . pp. 372-376

Modelling a slug population using differential equations
Choi, Y-H., Powers, S. J., Bohan, D. A., Wiltshire, C. W., Glen, D. M. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. Modelling a slug population using differential equations. Abstracts Meeting of the OILB/IOBC Working Group on Integrated Control of Soil Pests, Subgroup on Integrated Control of Slugs and Snails, Lyons, 8-9 March 2001 .

Testing SIRIUS predictions against wheat data sets in the UK
Richter, G. M., Semenov, M. A. and Mitchell, R. A. C. 2001. Testing SIRIUS predictions against wheat data sets in the UK. Abstracts 2nd International Symposium on Modelling Cropping Systems, Florence, 16-18 July 2001 . pp. 165-166

Simplifying SIRIUS: development of a metamodel for wheat yield prediction
Semenov, M. A., Brooks, R. J. and Jamieson, P. D. 2001. Simplifying SIRIUS: development of a metamodel for wheat yield prediction. Abstracts 2nd International Symposium on Modelling Cropping Systems, Florence, 16-18 July 2001 .

Improving wheat model accuracy and suitability for regional impact assessment. Final report of the IMPETUS European Commission Project ENV4-CT97-0496
Mitchell, R. A. C. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. Improving wheat model accuracy and suitability for regional impact assessment. Final report of the IMPETUS European Commission Project ENV4-CT97-0496. IACR Rothamsted Experimental Station, Harpenden.

Towards modelling quality in wheat - from grain nitrogen concentration to protein composition
Jamieson, P. D., Stone, P. J. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. Towards modelling quality in wheat - from grain nitrogen concentration to protein composition. Wheat Quality. Aspects of Applied Biology 64 . pp. 111-126

The effect of the timing of water availability on soil nitrogen, nitrogen uptake and grain protein concentration of winter wheat
Clarke, M. P., Gooding, M. J. and Semenov, M. A. 2001. The effect of the timing of water availability on soil nitrogen, nitrogen uptake and grain protein concentration of winter wheat. Wheat Quality. Aspects of Applied Biology 64 . pp. 103-110

Simplifying Sirius: sensitivity analysis and development of a meta-model for wheat yield prediction
Brooks, R. J., Semenov, M. A. and Jamieson, P. D. 2001. Simplifying Sirius: sensitivity analysis and development of a meta-model for wheat yield prediction. European Journal of Agronomy. 14, pp. 43-60.

Modelling CO2 effects on wheat with varying nitrogen supplies
Jamieson, P. D., Berntsen, J., Ewert, F., Kimball, B. A., Olesen, J. E., Pinter, P. J. Jr., Porter, J. R. and Semenov, M. A. 2000. Modelling CO2 effects on wheat with varying nitrogen supplies. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 82, pp. 27-37.

Modelling nitrogen uptake and redistribution in wheat
Jamieson, P. D. and Semenov, M. A. 2000. Modelling nitrogen uptake and redistribution in wheat. Field Crops Research. 68, pp. 21-29.

Modelling the effects of climatic change and genetic modification on nitrogen use by wheat
Porter, J. R., Leigh, R. A., Semenov, M. A. and Miglietta, F. 1995. Modelling the effects of climatic change and genetic modification on nitrogen use by wheat. European Journal of Agronomy. 4, pp. 419-429.