Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Guarin, J. R., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Webber, H., Dueri, S., Calderini, D., Reynolds, M., Molero, G., Miralles, D., Garcia, G., Slafer, G., Giunta, F., Pequeno, D. N. L., Stella, T., Ahmed, M., Alderman, P. D., Basso, B., Berger, A. G., Bindi, M., Bracho-Mujica, G., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Rezae, E. E., Fereres, E., Ferrise, R., Gaiser, T., Gao, Y., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hochman, Z., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Pullens, J. W. M., Rodríguez, A., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz Ramos, M., Semenov, M. A., Senapati, N., Siebert, S., Srivastava, A. K., Stöckle, C., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Wang, E., Weber, T. K. D., Xiao, L., Zhang, Z., Zhao, C., Zhao, J., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. and Asseng, S. 2022. Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential. Environmental Research Letters. 17, p. 124045. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c

AuthorsGuarin, J. R., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Webber, H., Dueri, S., Calderini, D., Reynolds, M., Molero, G., Miralles, D., Garcia, G., Slafer, G., Giunta, F., Pequeno, D. N. L., Stella, T., Ahmed, M., Alderman, P. D., Basso, B., Berger, A. G., Bindi, M., Bracho-Mujica, G., Cammarano, D., Chen, Y., Dumont, B., Rezae, E. E., Fereres, E., Ferrise, R., Gaiser, T., Gao, Y., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hochman, Z., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Pullens, J. W. M., Rodríguez, A., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz Ramos, M., Semenov, M. A., Senapati, N., Siebert, S., Srivastava, A. K., Stöckle, C., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P., Wang, E., Weber, T. K. D., Xiao, L., Zhang, Z., Zhao, C., Zhao, J., Zhao, Z., Zhu, Y. and Asseng, S.
Abstract

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 +/- 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.

KeywordsYield Increase; Radiation Use Efficiency; Wheat Potential Yield; Crop Model Ensemble; Global Food Security; Grain Number; Spring Wheat; Food Demand; Biomass Accumulation; Solar-Radiation; Crop Population; Climate; Photosynthesis
Year of Publication2022
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Journal citation17, p. 124045
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeDesigning Future Wheat - WP1 - Increased efficiency and sustainability
ASSIST - Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online12 Dec 2022
Publication process dates
Accepted30 Nov 2022
PublisherIOP Publishing Ltd
ISSN1748-9326

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/98v0w/evidence-for-increasing-global-wheat-yield-potential

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