Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Mozny, M., Trnka, M., Vlach, V., Zalud, Z., Cejka, T., Hajkova, L., Potopova, V., Semenov, M. A., Semeradova, D. and Buntgen, U. 2023. Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures. Nature Communications. 14, p. 6028. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41474-5

AuthorsMozny, M., Trnka, M., Vlach, V., Zalud, Z., Cejka, T., Hajkova, L., Potopova, V., Semenov, M. A., Semeradova, D. and Buntgen, U.
Abstract

A recent rise in the global brewery sector has increased the demand for high quality, late summer hops. The effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on the yield and aroma of hops, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we combine meteorological measurements and model projections to
assess the climate sensitivity of the yield, alpha content and cone development of European hops between 1970 and 2050 CE, when temperature increases by 1.4 °C and precipitation decreases by 24 mm. Accounting for almost 90% of all
hop-growing regions, our results from Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia show that hop ripening started approximately 20 days earlier, production declined by almost 0.2 t/ha/year, and the alpha content decreased by circa 0.6% when comparing data before and after 1994 CE. A predicted decline in hop yield and alpha content of 4–18% and 20–31% by 2050 CE, respectively, calls for immediate adaptation measures to stabilize an ever-growing global sector.

Year of Publication2023
JournalNature Communications
Journal citation14, p. 6028
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41474-5
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeDelivering Sustainable Wheat
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online10 Oct 2023
Publication process dates
Accepted06 Sep 2023
PublisherNature Publishing Group
ISSN2041-1723

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