Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Putelat, T., Whitmore, A. P., Senapati, N. and Semenov, M. A. 2021. Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain. Royal Society Open Science. 8 (6), p. 201669. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201669

AuthorsPutelat, T., Whitmore, A. P., Senapati, N. and Semenov, M. A.

Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential wheat-growing areas in GB. However, depending on susceptibility to water stress, substantial interannual yield variation between locations is predicted, in some cases suggesting low wheat yield stability. For this reason, local-scale studies should be performed to evaluate uncertainties in yield prediction related to future weather patterns.

KeywordsSirius crop simulation model ; Local-scale climate scenarios; LARS-WG weather generator; Drought and heat stress
Year of Publication2021
JournalRoyal Society Open Science
Journal citation8 (6), p. 201669
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201669
Web address (URL)https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.201669
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Natural Environment Research Council
Funder project or codeDesigning Future Wheat (DFW) [ISPG]
S2N - Soil to Nutrition - Work package 3 (WP3) - Sustainable intensification - optimisation at multiple scales
ASSIST - Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems
Publisher's version
Accepted author manuscript
Supplemental file
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online16 Jun 2021
Publication process dates
Accepted17 May 2021
PublisherRoyal Society Publishing

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/9836w/local-impacts-of-climate-change-on-winter-wheat-in-great-britain

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