Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Webber, H, Ewert, F., Olesen, J. E., Müller, C., Fronzek, S., Ruane, A. C., Bourgault, M., Martre, P., Ababaei, B., Bindi, M., Ferrise, R., Finger, R., Fodor, N., Gabaldón-Leal, C., Gaiser, T., Jabloun, M., Kersebaum, K.-C., Lizaso, J. I., Lorie, I. J., Manceau, L., Moriondo, M., Nendel, C., Rodriguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semenov, M. A., Siebert, S., Stella, T., Stratonovitch, P., Trombi, G. and Wallach, D. 2018. Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe. Nature Communications. 9 (4249).

AuthorsWebber, H, Ewert, F., Olesen, J. E., Müller, C., Fronzek, S., Ruane, A. C., Bourgault, M., Martre, P., Ababaei, B., Bindi, M., Ferrise, R., Finger, R., Fodor, N., Gabaldón-Leal, C., Gaiser, T., Jabloun, M., Kersebaum, K.-C., Lizaso, J. I., Lorie, I. J., Manceau, L., Moriondo, M., Nendel, C., Rodriguez, A., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Semenov, M. A., Siebert, S., Stella, T., Stratonovitch, P., Trombi, G. and Wallach, D.
Abstract

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years

Keywords
Year of Publication2018
JournalNature Communications
Journal citation9 (4249)
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
Funder project or codeDesigning Future Wheat (DFW) [ISPG]
DFW - Designing Future Wheat - Work package 1 (WP1) - Increased efficiency and sustainability
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Accepted author manuscriptWebber et al 2018 Nature Comm s41467-018-06525-2.pdf
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online12 Oct 2018
Publication process dates
Accepted07 Sep 2018
Copyright licenseCC BY
PublisherNature Publishing Group
ISSN2041-1723

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