A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Holloway, M. J., Beven K. J., Benskin, C. Mc. W. H., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Fallon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana R., Macleod, C. J. A., Ockenden, M. C., Villamizar, M., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J. A., Zhou, J. G., Barber, N. J. and Haygarth, P. M. 2018. A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates. Hydrological Processes. 32 (17), pp. 2779-2787.

AuthorsHolloway, M. J., Beven K. J., Benskin, C. Mc. W. H., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Fallon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana R., Macleod, C. J. A., Ockenden, M. C., Villamizar, M., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J. A., Zhou, J. G., Barber, N. J. and Haygarth, P. M.
Abstract

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce
the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations.
In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.

Year of Publication2018
JournalHydrological Processes
Journal citation32 (17), pp. 2779-2787
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1002/hyp.13217
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeS2N - Soil to Nutrition - Work package 3 (WP3) - Sustainable intensification - optimisation at multiple scales
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online28 Jun 2018
Publication process dates
Accepted11 Jun 2018
PublisherWiley-Blackwell
Copyright licenseCC BY
ISSN0885-6087

Permalink - https://repository.rothamsted.ac.uk/item/84865/a-method-for-uncertainty-constraint-of-catchment-discharge-and-phosphorus-load-estimates

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