Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Ockenden, M. C., Hollaway, M. J., Beven, K. J., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Falloon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Tych, W., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J. A., Zhou, J. G., Barker, P. A., Burke, S., Freer, J. E., Johnes, P. J., Snell, M. A., Surridge, B. W. J. and Haygarth, P. M. 2017. Major agricultural changes required to mitigate phosphorus losses under climate change. Nature Communications. 8 (1), p. 161.

AuthorsOckenden, M. C., Hollaway, M. J., Beven, K. J., Collins, A. L., Evans, R., Falloon, P. D., Forber, K. J., Hiscock, K. M., Kahana, R., Macleod, C. J. A., Tych, W., Villamizar, M. L., Wearing, C., Withers, P. J. A., Zhou, J. G., Barker, P. A., Burke, S., Freer, J. E., Johnes, P. J., Snell, M. A., Surridge, B. W. J. and Haygarth, P. M.
Abstract

Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed
to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model,
uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential
intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to
30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20–80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

Keywords
Year of Publication2017
JournalNature Communications
Journal citation8 (1), p. 161
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0
Open accessPublished as ‘gold’ (paid) open access
Funder project or codeSustainability
Provision of Demonstration test Catchments: LM0304
FunderDepartment of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Publisher's versions41467-017-00232-0.pdf
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online31 Jul 2017
Publication process dates
Accepted14 Jun 2017
Copyright licenseCC BY
PublisherSpringer Nature
Nature Publishing Group
ISSN2041-1723

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