Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

A - Papers appearing in refereed journals

Jones, G. D., Droz, B., Greve, P., Gottschalk, P., Poffet, D., McGrath, S. P., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, P. and Winkel, L. H. E. 2017. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - PNAS. 114 (11), pp. 2848-2853.

AuthorsJones, G. D., Droz, B., Greve, P., Gottschalk, P., Poffet, D., McGrath, S. P., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, P. and Winkel, L. H. E.
Abstract

Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

Keywordsselenium; soils; global distribution; prediction; climate change
Year of Publication2017
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - PNAS
Journal citation114 (11), pp. 2848-2853
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1073/pnas.1611576114
PubMed ID28223487
Open accessPublished as bronze (free) open access
FunderBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Funder project or codeSustainability
Optimisation of nutrients in soil-plant systems: Determining how phosphorus availability is regulated in soils
Publisher's version
Output statusPublished
Publication dates
Online21 Feb 2017
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Copyright licensePublisher copyright
ISSN0027-8424

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